12265 Smiths Neck Rd · Carrollton, VA 23314

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1956 0.73 ac lot $137/sqft · at area comps Est $152k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful country living on 0.73 acres in quiet Carrollton setting! 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom featuring multi-zone mini-split HVAC, Rheem hot water heater, and a spacious rural lot with mature trees. 1,092 sq ft via tax records. Large 0.73-acre lot with gravel driveway, storage shed, and room to expand. Country privacy just minutes from town. Near Fort Eustis, Langley, Naval Medical Center Portsmouth and only 26 miles to Naval Station Norfolk. Priced for quick sale. Schedule your showing today. *** Seller concession available***

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Spacious rural lot
• Mature trees

Tags

• MULTI-ZONE MINI-SPLIT HVAC
• RHEEM HOT WATER HEATER
• SPACIOUS RURAL LOT
• MATURE TREES
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.4% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#201 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $126k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.20%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,700
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -1.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12189 Smiths Neck Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-6%)	3mo	$284,900	$276	81
12178 Green Wing Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	4mo	$18,500	$17	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $22,889
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $80,582
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23314

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $916/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $784	+0% $741	+5% $699	+10% $656
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $658	+0% $741	+5% $825	+10% $908
Rate	-1.0pp $817	-0.5pp $779	base $741	+0.5pp $702	+1.0pp $663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Marsh Landing Dr Unit 00 141102 Carrollton, VA	2.0	2.0	961	$1,729	$1.80	4d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    status Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Peaceful country living on 0.73 acres in quiet Carrollton setting! 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom featuring multi-zone mini-split HVAC, Rheem hot water heater, and a spacious rural lot with mature trees. 1,092 sq ft via tax records. Large 0.73-acre lot with gravel driveway, storage shed, and room to expand. Country privacy just minutes from town. Near Fort Eustis, Langley, Naval Medical Center Portsmouth and only 26 miles to Naval Station Norfolk. Priced for quick sale. Schedule your showing today. *** Seller concession available***

14. 2026-04-16
    status Under Contract 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Peaceful country living on 0.73 acres in quiet Carrollton setting! 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom featuring multi-zone mini-split HVAC, Rheem hot water heater, and a spacious rural lot with mature trees. 1,092 sq ft via tax records. Large 0.73-acre lot with gravel driveway, storage shed, and room to expand. Country privacy just minutes from town. Near Fort Eustis, Langley, Naval Medical Center Portsmouth and only 26 miles to Naval Station Norfolk. Priced for quick sale. Schedule your showing today. *** Seller concession available***

15. 2026-03-20
    listed $175,000 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    Peaceful country living on 0.73 acres in quiet Carrollton setting! 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom featuring multi-zone mini-split HVAC, Rheem hot water heater, and a spacious rural lot with mature trees. 1,092 sq ft via tax records. Large 0.73-acre lot with gravel driveway, storage shed, and room to expand. Country privacy just minutes from town. Near Fort Eustis, Langley, Naval Medical Center Portsmouth and only 26 miles to Naval Station Norfolk. Priced for quick sale. Schedule your showing today. *** Seller concession available***

16. 2026-03-09
    historical
17. 2026-01-31
    price $185,000
18. 2025-12-10
    price $195,000
19. 2025-11-22
    price $205,000
20. 2025-10-30
    price $215,000
21. 2025-09-09
    listed $225,000 Active
22. 2025-03-31
    historical
23. 2025-01-29
    historical
24. 2025-01-29
    listed $239,990 Active
25. 2024-10-07
    listed $240,000 Active
26. 2024-10-02
    historical
27. 2024-08-21
    listed $240,000 Active
28. 2024-06-21
    historical
29. 2024-04-03
    price $250,000
30. 2024-02-20
    price $225,000
31. 2024-02-10
    listed $250,000 Active
32. 2023-09-08
    soldstatus $125,500
33. 2023-08-08
    status Under Contract
34. 2023-07-25
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2023-07-21
    status Active
36. 2023-07-14
    historical Active Under Contract
37. 2023-07-13
    listed $125,000 Active
38. 2019-07-22
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$313/yr (+$26/mo · 34.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$916
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $6,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,641
• After-tax cash flow: $7,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #6196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Isle of Wight County · 10,099 people
• City population: 10,099
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,099
• Household income: $104,029
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 21% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.21%
• Current HPI: 267.9382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+600.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $175,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $185,000 REINMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $195,000 REINMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $205,000 REINMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $215,000 REINMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $225,000 REINMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $239,990 REINMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listed $240,000 REINMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2024-08-21 Listed $240,000 REINMLS
• 2024-06-21 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $250,000 REINMLS
• 2024-02-20 Price Changed $225,000 REINMLS
• 2024-02-10 Listed $250,000 REINMLS
• 2023-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,500 Public Records
• 2023-08-08 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-07-25 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2023-07-21 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2023-07-14 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2023-07-13 Listed $125,000 REINMLS
• 2019-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $916 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.