2829 Timmons Ln · Houston, TX 77027

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attractively located Park St. John Condo in good condition but has not been updated. Unit is on the 2nd floor. Low price allows buyer an attractive budget to renovate as they desire. Photos coming soon!

Key facts

• Built 1979
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1979
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,146
• Exterior features: Located in the Greenway / Upper Kirby area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($940/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poe El (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 790 students, 34% FRL); Lanier Middle (math 73% / reading 82%, grade A+, #27 of 1,662 statewide, top 2%, 1,434 students, 29% FRL); Lamar H S (math 38% / reading 65%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 3,125 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 71% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Houston ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,249 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $671,556
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3660 Richmond Ave Unit 340	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,227 (+7%)	18mo	$170,000	$139	48
2922 Suffolk Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,238 (+8%)	8mo	$725,000	$586	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,746
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-44,277
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77027

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $149	+0% $78	+5% $8	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $4	+0% $78	+5% $153	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $130	base $78	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2829 Timmons Ln Unit 1-552 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1452	$1,985	$1.37	45d	1	0.02mi
2829 Timmons Ln Unit 1106 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,711	$1.52	45d	1	0.02mi
2829 Timmons Ln Unit 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	787	$1,256	$1.60	26d	1	0.02mi
2829 Timmons Ln Unit 2102 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	908	$1,288	$1.42	26d	1	0.02mi
3623 W Alabama St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,312	$2.20	1d	20	0.11mi
3510 W Alabama St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	744	$1,462	$1.97	12d	1	0.13mi
3720 W Alabama St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,872	$2.16	0d	29	0.13mi
3131 Timmons Ln Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$2,001	$2.01	0d	1	0.17mi
3131 Timmons Ln Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$2,041	$2.05	12d	1	0.17mi
3131 Timmons Ln Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$2,017	$2.03	7d	1	0.17mi
3131 Timmons Ln Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$2,017	$2.03	9d	1	0.17mi
3131 Timmons Ln Unit 3168 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$2,052	$2.06	14d	1	0.17mi
3137 Timmons Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,025	$1.96	45d	1	0.17mi
2599 Maconda Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,447	$1.93	26d	1	0.20mi
3805 W Alabama St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,954	$1.78	1d	24	0.21mi
3333 Cummins St Unit 3356 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$2,415	$2.38	15d	1	0.22mi
3333 Cummins St Unit 3390 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,414	$1.39	12d	1	0.22mi
3333 Cummins St Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,374	$1.36	0d	1	0.22mi
3333 Cummins St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,390	$1.37	9d	1	0.22mi
3333 Cummins St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,390	$1.37	7d	1	0.22mi
3333 Cummins St Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,425	$1.41	13d	1	0.24mi
3226 Alabama Ct Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	877	$1,345	$1.53	26d	1	0.25mi
3400 Edloe St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,098	$1.69	1d	8	0.28mi
3015 Weslayan St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$3,910	$3.83	1d	37	0.30mi
3400 W Alabama St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	997	$2,108	$2.11	45d	1	0.31mi
2929 Weslayan St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	2411	$11,502	$4.77	1d	28	0.32mi
2929 Weslayan St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	2411	$9,812	$4.07	26d	23	0.32mi
3411 Cummins St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1560	$2,349	$1.51	1d	14	0.34mi
2928 Weslayan St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	994	$2,863	$2.88	45d	1	0.34mi
3660 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,302	$2.12	0d	19	0.35mi
2900 Weslayan St Ste 200 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	976	$1,818	$1.86	45d	1	0.37mi
3788 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,246	$2.16	0d	11	0.37mi
3333 Weslayan St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$2,151	$1.96	5d	25	0.38mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2534 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$3,571	$2.86	12d	1	0.38mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2022 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	846	$1,498	$1.77	26d	1	0.38mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2526 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	856	$2,958	$3.46	16d	1	0.38mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2526 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	787	$2,565	$3.26	12d	1	0.38mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 12102 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1348	$2,758	$2.05	45d	1	0.38mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 1321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	934	$1,503	$1.61	26d	1	0.38mi
2511 Willowick Rd Unit 2008 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1498	$2,368	$1.58	45d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 202-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $205,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$2,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $1,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,317
• Household income: $103,812
• Rent vs Own: 69.8% rent · 30.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 10% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.66%
• Current HPI: 232.8691
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15669.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $205,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,750 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-03 Rental Removed $1,750 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-02-13 Listed for Rent $1,750 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-02-13 Listed for Rent $1,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-04-17 Rental Removed $2,102 RENT.
• 2025-04-17 Rental Removed $2,102 RENT.
• 2025-04-17 Rental Removed $2,102 RENT.
• 2025-04-17 Rental Removed $2,102 RENT.
• 2024-11-11 Listed for Rent $2,102 RENT.
• 2024-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,588 RENT.
• 2024-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,723 RENT.
• 2024-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,996 RENT.
• 2024-11-04 Rental Removed $1,300 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-10-09 Listed for Rent $1,300 RENTALBEAST
• 2023-05-20 Rental Removed — RENT.