2445 Columbus-lancaster Rd NW Lot 433 · Lancaster, OH 43130

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,178 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $59/sqft · at area comps Est $69k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Colonial Estates, a mobile home community conveniently located in Lancaster, Ohio. Just minutes from US-33 and all the shopping, dining, and amenities along Memorial Drive, this 2022 Adventure single-wide home offers comfortable and modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Residents of Colonial Estates enjoy great community features including a playground, swimming pool, basketball court, clubhouse, and more.

Key facts

• Built 2021
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 4.0% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#41 in OH, #423 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D.
• Lancaster City (town): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #504 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 475 units permitted in Fairfield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfield County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.96%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,609
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: 1.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2445 Columbus Lancaster Rd NW Lot 463	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-5%)	7mo	$30,000	$27	80
2445 Columbus Lancaster Rd NW Lot 375	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-5%)	9mo	$68,450	$61	79
2445 Columbus Lancaster Rd NW #147	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-5%)	10mo	$49,900	$45	72
2445 NW Columbus Lancaster Rd NW Lot 367	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+9%)	15mo	$49,999	$39	67
2445 Columbus Lancaster Rd Lot 446 NW	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+9%)	16mo	$64,750	$51	66
2445 Columbus Lancaster Rd NW Lot 382	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	17mo	$68,000	$52	62
1422 Autumn Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,242 (+5%)	10mo	$300,000	$242	56
1533 Scenic Valley Pl	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,260 (+7%)	6mo	$280,000	$222	56
2445 Columbus Lancaster Rd Rd NW Lot 138	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,067 (-9%)	21mo	$89,000	$83	55
1449 Autumn Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+6%)	21mo	$296,000	$237	45
2634 Fernwood Ave	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,321 (+12%)	2mo	$315,000	$238	44
1556 Hocking Valley Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,350 (+15%)	21mo	$265,000	$196	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $41,086
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $114,185
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43130

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-04-08
    listed $69,900 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Welcome to Colonial Estates, a mobile home community conveniently located in Lancaster, Ohio. Just minutes from US-33 and all the shopping, dining, and amenities along Memorial Drive, this 2022 Adventure single-wide home offers comfortable and modern living with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Residents of Colonial Estates enjoy great community features including a playground, swimming pool, basketball court, clubhouse, and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $8,589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,061
• After-tax cash flow: $7,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022 single-wide mobile home in Colonial Estates, Lancaster, Ohio, is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster City
• NCES district ID: 3904420
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $41,696
• Composite: 37.39/100
• National rank: #4427
• State rank: #504 of 656 in OH

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #423

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fairfield County · 109,896 people
• City population: 62,933
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• Population (ZIP): 62,933
• Household income: $72,153
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1400.0

Population outlook (Fairfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,442 people
• By 2030: 166,796 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 172,835 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 174,822 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 174,938 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 160,988 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfield

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.5% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.1pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.0 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.81%
• Current HPI: 239.6352
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Columbus, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $69,900 CBRMLS