31 Albany Tpke · Chatham, NY 12037

$160,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,236 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Built 1820 Fair condition 0.38 ac lot $72/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic colonial fixer upper with 5-bedrooms and one bath located in Chatham School District. Plenty of room for everyone. Light & bright kitchen with fir floors. Bedroom on first floor. Big back yard. Ready to make it your own.

Key facts

• Big back yard
• Light kitchen
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• CHATHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LIGHT KITCHEN
• BIG BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.4% in Chatham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#686 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, schools B; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chatham Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #353 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.07%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $470,107
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -65.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2919 County Rte 9	0.20mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,020 (-10%)	7mo	$435,000	$215	61
42 Frisbee St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,152 (-4%)	13mo	$463,000	$215	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $115,878
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.11×
• Total profit: $318,726
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12037

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $160,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 169 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $169,000 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Fantastic colonial fixer upper with 5-bedrooms and one bath located in Chatham School District. Plenty of room for everyone. Light & bright kitchen with fir floors. Bedroom on first floor. Big back yard. Ready to make it your own.

17. 2026-04-19
    price $179,000 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Fantastic colonial fixer upper with 5-bedrooms and one bath located in Chatham School District. Plenty of room for everyone. Light & bright kitchen with fir floors. Bedroom on first floor. Big back yard. Ready to make it your own.

18. 2026-03-16
    price $189,000 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Fantastic colonial fixer upper with 5-bedrooms and one bath located in Chatham School District. Plenty of room for everyone. Light & bright kitchen with fir floors. Bedroom on first floor. Big back yard. Ready to make it your own.

19. 2025-12-12
    listed $225,000 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Fantastic colonial fixer upper with 5-bedrooms and one bath located in Chatham School District. Plenty of room for everyone. Light & bright kitchen with fir floors. Bedroom on first floor. Big back yard. Ready to make it your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $3,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$730
• After-tax cash flow: $4,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property is a fair condition fixer-upper with moderate rehabilitation needs, including roof and exterior repairs, and interior updates to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Roof — Snow on roof
• Major Exterior siding — Snow on roof
• Minor Windows — Screens present

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and value
• Both Replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and appearance
• Both Replace exterior siding — Improves appearance and value
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Roof · Snow on roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Snow on roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Screens present	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$30,500–103,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Replace roof — Essential for structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — Improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chatham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,460
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #2835
• State rank: #353 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chatham

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #686
• US rank: #12965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,045

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.31%
• Current HPI: 419.8449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $169,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $179,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $189,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $225,000 HVCRMLS