Mayfield - Modern Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$374,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Good condition $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Mayfield is a spacious two-story home with a first-floor bedroom, great room, and kitchen with island and pantry, a private primary suite upstairs, two additional bedrooms, plus a laundry room, covered porch, backyard patio, and 2-car garage.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• First-floor bedroom
• Laundry room

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $374,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $464,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,182 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,990
• List price: $374,990
• Delta: -19.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2223 Prickly Cactus Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,168 (+0%)	1mo	$399,999	$185	78
Seaberry II Meraki PKWY	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,007 (-7%)	11mo	$409,900	$204	69
Homes Available Soon Coming Soon	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,193 (+1%)	16mo	$570,000	$260	68
2728 Railway St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,313 (+7%)	0mo	$474,162	$205	62
3150 Blackfoot St	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,486 (+15%)	2mo	$439,000	$177	52
9507 Neal Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,254 (+4%)	30mo	$549,999	$244	45
9757 Neal Rd	1.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,392 (+10%)	3mo	$1,130,000	$472	40
16187 Calvert Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,280 (+5%)	34mo	$449,900	$197	40
15950 Miller Farm Rd	0.94mi	4/2.5	2,676 (+24%)	2mo	$650,000	$243	36
9675 Neal Rd	0.98mi	4/3.0	2,320 (+7%)	33mo	$445,000	$192	33
17012 High Meadow Ct	1.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,937 (-10%)	17mo	$425,000	$219	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-155,867
• Equity at exit: $69,332

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.93×
• Total profit: $-250,710
• Equity at exit: $40,204

Cash invested: $130,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 88 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 132.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $449,900 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 165 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,975/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-1,198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,308

Max offer price $291,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-877	-5% $-1,037	+0% $-1,198	+5% $-1,359	+10% $-1,519
Rent	-10% $-1,419	-5% $-1,308	+0% $-1,198	+5% $-1,088	+10% $-978
Rate	-1.0pp $-964	-0.5pp $-1,080	base $-1,198	+0.5pp $-1,319	+1.0pp $-1,441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,248
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17700 FM 548 Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2603	$3,750	$1.44	0d	1	0.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $65

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gasElectric power and central air available
• Home design: Single-family plan (Mayfield - Modern)Located in Forney, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Mayfield - Modern (new construction plan)Living area approximately 2,164

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $374,990 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $374,990 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $374,990 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $374,990 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $374,990 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $374,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $374,990 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $374,990 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $374,990 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $374,990 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $374,990 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $374,990 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $374,990 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $374,990 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $374,990 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $374,990 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $374,990 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $374,990 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $374,990 Active 72 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $374,990 Active 71 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 70 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 69 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $374,990 Active 68 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $374,990 Active 67 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $374,990 Active 66 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $374,990 Active 64 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $374,990 Active 63 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $374,990 Active 62 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $374,990 Active 61 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $374,990 Active 60 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $374,990 Active 59 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $374,990 Active 58 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $374,990 Active 57 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $374,990 Active 56 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $374,990 Active 55 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $374,990 Active 54 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $374,990 Active 53 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $374,990 Active 51 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $374,990 Active 49 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $374,990 Active 48 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $374,990 Active 45 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $374,990 Active 44 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $374,990 Active 43 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $374,990 Active 42 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 40 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 39 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $374,990 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,990 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,990 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,990 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥109°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$6,975
• − Insurance: −$3,827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,680
• − Management: −$2,680
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$23,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,523
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Mayfield home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crosby El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Brown Middle F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High North Forney H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $65

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gasElectric power and central air available
• Home design: Single-family plan (Mayfield - Modern)Located in Forney, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Mayfield - Modern (new construction plan)Living area approximately 2,164