375 E Highway 20 Hwy #8 · Upper Lake, CA 95485

$149,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $150k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this brand new 2025 Tempo Series manufactured home located in the desirable Meadow Pointe Manufactured Community. With an affordable space rent of just $595 per month, this spacious home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a thoughtfully designed open-concept floor plan. The modern kitchen features stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinetry for storage, and a seamless flow into the living and dining areasperfect for everyday living and entertaining. Indoor laundry hookups add convenience and functionality. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a private en-suite bathroom complete with double sinks and a separate shower stall. Modern fixtures are featured throughout

Key facts

• Abundant cabinetry
• Modern kitchen
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• TEMPO SERIES MANUFACTURED HOME
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY HOOKUPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#390 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $589 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,451 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.03%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,612
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
375 E Highway 20 Hwy #8	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,324 (0%)	1mo	$149,000	$113	99
375 E Highway 20 Hwy #66	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+2%)	16mo	$69,000	$51	73
375 E Highway 20 Hwy #26	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-0%)	23mo	$130,000	$98	72
375 E Highway 20 Hwy #59	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (-7%)	10mo	$140,000	$114	71
375 E Highway 20 Hwy #72	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	18mo	$67,950	$47	62
551 Clover Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+12%)	1mo	$325,000	$218	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $34,166
• Equity at exit: $46,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $98,763
• Equity at exit: $58,332

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95485

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,249/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$2,249
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $4,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,109
• After-tax cash flow: $5,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Lake Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601442
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,872
• Composite: 20.24/100
• National rank: #8624
• State rank: #433 of 517 in CA

Livability — Upper Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #13252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,900

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 12% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Current HPI: 154.5278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B