9 Kentucky Derby Ct · Lugoff, SC 29078

$315,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,442 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 2018 9,147 sqft lot Est $320k · at est. $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Family Home with Modern Upgrades and Prime Location!Welcome to this beautiful 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offering over 2,400 square feet of living space. Freshly painted and with brand-new carpet, this home is move-in ready. The kitchen boasts upgraded stainless steel appliances and elegant granite countertops. The home features upgraded light fixtures and spacious walk-in closets in every bedroom. The loft area provides additional living space, and one bedroom is currently set up as a cozy movie room. Enjoy the outdoors in the fenced backyard with a storage shed, and take advantage of the two-car garage and an HVAC unit that’s only two years old. Located near the neighborhoo

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Granite countertops
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED LIGHT FIXTURES
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• COOKOUT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Property is part of an association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces (main level)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story detached home
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Partial above-foundation brick and vinyl siding; Paved road access; Approximately 0.21 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Tiled backsplash; Glazed cabinets; Pantry; Eat-in nook; Double oven gas range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on second level with double vanity, private bath, separate shower, tub/shower, walk-in closet, tray ceilings, ceiling fan, carpet and tile flooring; Second bedroom on main level with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, carpet; Third bedroom on second level with walk-in closet, tray ceilings, carpet; Fourth bedroom on second level with walk-in closet, tray ceilings, ceiling fan, carpet
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood in kitchen and formal dining; Carpet in great room and bedrooms; Tile flooring in master bedroom areas
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms total; one main-level full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and air; Heat pump on first level; Heat pump on second level
• Interior features: Double oven gas range (free-standing, self-cleaning); Eat-in kitchen with nook, pantry, granite countertops and tiled backsplash; Glazed cabinets in kitchen; Formal dining room with molding and engineered hardwood floors; Great room with ceiling fan; Utility/laundry room (washer/dryer located on second level)
• Laundry & utility: Utility/laundry room; Washer and dryer located on second level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-585/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#47 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kershaw 01 (rural): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in SC (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wateree Elementary (math 51% / reading 51%, grade C-, #158 of 597 statewide, top 27%, 732 students, 72% FRL); Lugoff-Elgin High (math 65% / reading 89%, grade A-, #28 of 196 statewide, top 16%, 1,744 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 49% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kershaw 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 491 units permitted in Kershaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kershaw County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,866 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,902
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Training	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,171 (-11%)	22mo	$285,000	$131	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,228
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-51,549
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29078

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,136/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,510

Max offer price $306,395

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $40	+0% $-49	+5% $-138	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-145	+0% $-49	+5% $48	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $31	base $-49	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Sedge Ct Elgin, SC	4.0	2.0	1576	$2,099	$1.33	4d	1	1.30mi
89 Smokewood Dr Elgin, SC	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,129	$1.16	3d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $315,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-03-08
    price $318,000
15. 2026-02-06
    listed $328,000 Active
16. 2026-01-30
    historical
17. 2025-11-21
    price $328,000
18. 2025-11-19
    price $334,000
19. 2025-10-19
    price $335,000
20. 2025-09-21
    price $337,400
21. 2025-08-29
    listed $339,900 Active
22. 2025-06-20
    price $339,900
23. 2025-05-30
    price $340,000
24. 2025-03-25
    listed $350,000 Active
25. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus $295,000
26. 2022-04-27
    historical
27. 2022-04-18
    status Active
28. 2022-04-15
    historical
29. 2022-04-09
    status Active
30. 2022-03-31
    historical
31. 2022-03-26
    listed $295,000 Active
32. 2018-07-17
    price $214,970
33. 2018-06-27
    price $213,328

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,136
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kershaw 01
• NCES district ID: 4502550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,585
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4371
• State rank: #25 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lugoff

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lugoff, SC
• County: Kershaw County · 47,655 people
• City population: 16,283
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 16,283
• Household income: $67,727
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 61.0

Population outlook (Kershaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,683 people
• By 2030: 69,374 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 71,936 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 73,292 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 75,762 · +11.9%
• By 2100: 72,620 · +7.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Kershaw

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.3% · R 63.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+24.8 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.83%
• Current HPI: 211.3661
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+49.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $318,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $328,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-30 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $328,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $334,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $335,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $337,400 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $339,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $339,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $340,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $350,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-27 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-04-18 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-04-15 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-04-09 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-03-31 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-03-26 Listed $295,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2018-07-17 Price Changed $214,970 Consolidated MLS
• 2018-06-27 Price Changed $213,328 Consolidated MLS

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,136 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.