The Robin II Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$242,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Robin II is a two-story plan with a spacious primary suite on the main level. A covered front porch greets you as you enter the home, leading to the kitchen, dining area, and attached family room. The primary suite is at the rear of the home on the first floor and includes a generous ensuite and walk-in closet. There are three additional bedrooms, a shared bath, and an oversized loft upstairs. The loft can be optioned as an enclosed media room or a fifth bedroom with an ensuite bath.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Oversized loft
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• GENEROUS ENSUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED LOFT
• ENCLOSED MEDIA ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $242,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $269,916.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($890/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $243k).
• Recommended offer: $239k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,345 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,916
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: -9.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9749 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,173 (0%)	2mo	$282,555	$130	92
9765 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,173 (0%)	4mo	$290,160	$134	89
9758 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-5%)	2mo	$259,990	$126	77
12375 Sunset Canyon Way	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,253 (+4%)	1mo	$288,075	$128	76
12307 Sunset Canyon Way	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,253 (+4%)	6mo	$334,910	$149	73
12739 Woodcreek Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,284 (+5%)	0mo	$340,000	$149	65
12575 Canyon Falls Blvd	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+10%)	20mo	$310,000	$129	62
12079 Noble Heart Dr	0.34mi	4/3.5	2,300 (+6%)	18mo	$350,000	$152	56
13074 Falling Oak Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,128 (-2%)	21mo	$155,000	$73	49
13054 Falling Oak Dr	0.53mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,016 (-7%)	18mo	$114,950	$57	41
718 Campbell Crossing Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (-7%)	10mo	$429,900	$212	39
240 River Grove St	0.75mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,358 (+8%)	15mo	$314,990	$134	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-46,173
• Equity at exit: $40,245

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-61,779
• Equity at exit: $23,337

Cash invested: $75,576 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,049/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $269,916

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,479
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,990 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,990 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,990 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,990 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,990 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,990 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $242,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,990 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,990 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,990 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,990 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $242,990 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    The Robin II is a two-story plan with a spacious primary suite on the main level. A covered front porch greets you as you enter the home, leading to the kitchen, dining area, and attached family room. The primary suite is at the rear of the home on the first floor and includes a generous ensuite and walk-in closet. There are three additional bedrooms, a shared bath, and an oversized loft upstairs. The loft can be optioned as an enclosed media room or a fifth bedroom with an ensuite bath.

15. 2026-05-04
    price $257,990 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    The Robin II is a two-story plan with a spacious primary suite on the main level. A covered front porch greets you as you enter the home, leading to the kitchen, dining area, and attached family room. The primary suite is at the rear of the home on the first floor and includes a generous ensuite and walk-in closet. There are three additional bedrooms, a shared bath, and an oversized loft upstairs. The loft can be optioned as an enclosed media room or a fifth bedroom with an ensuite bath.

16. 2026-03-09
    listed $254,990 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    The Robin II is a two-story plan with a spacious primary suite on the main level. A covered front porch greets you as you enter the home, leading to the kitchen, dining area, and attached family room. The primary suite is at the rear of the home on the first floor and includes a generous ensuite and walk-in closet. There are three additional bedrooms, a shared bath, and an oversized loft upstairs. The loft can be optioned as an enclosed media room or a fifth bedroom with an ensuite bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,049
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$3,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$870
• After-tax cash flow: $1,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Robin II Plan is a well-maintained two-story home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-09 Listed $254,990 Zillow