16 Canal St · Big Flats, NY 14814

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,811 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1890 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-bdrm. home with many updates. Some include new kitchen, appliances, windows, flooring, and bathroom. Close to schools and shop with nice sized yard. Public water to be hooked-up with acceptable offer, currently on a well. Owner is a licensed realtor.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.9% in Big Flats — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#464 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.03%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,595
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Miller St	0.08mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,750 (-3%)	22mo	$157,450	$90	65
208 County Road 64	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,675 (-8%)	8mo	$242,740	$145	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $56,774
• Equity at exit: $73,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $149,444
• Equity at exit: $134,571

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14814

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,114/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $382	+0% $350	+5% $317	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $224	-5% $287	+0% $350	+5% $413	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $407	-0.5pp $379	base $350	+0.5pp $320	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Bottchers Dr Big Flats, NY	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1326	$1,595	$1.20	44d	2	0.88mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2024-12-26
   historical
2. 2024-09-10
   listed $115,000
3. 2014-06-05
   soldstatus $95,000
4. 2014-06-04
   soldstatus $95,000 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   4-bdrm. home with many updates. Some include new kitchen, appliances, windows, flooring, and bathroom. Close to schools and shop with nice sized yard. Public water to be hooked-up with acceptable offer, currently on a well. Owner is a licensed realtor.

5. 2014-03-10
   listed $99,900 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   4-bdrm. home with many updates. Some include new kitchen, appliances, windows, flooring, and bathroom. Close to schools and shop with nice sized yard. Public water to be hooked-up with acceptable offer, currently on a well. Owner is a licensed realtor.

6. 2014-02-28
   historical
7. 2013-08-31
   listed $99,500
8. 2011-08-16
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,114 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,114 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 34% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,114
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$624
• After-tax cash flow: $3,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Horseheads Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614850
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,594
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2781
• State rank: #347 of 590 in NY

Livability — Big Flats

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #8086

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Flats, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,047

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 5% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 7% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.18%
• Current HPI: 305.0488
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+155.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-26 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-10 Listed $115,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-04 Sold (MLS) $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-03-10 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-02-28 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2013-08-31 Listed $99,500 UNYREIS
• 2011-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,114 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.