Kitson Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$212,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 115 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $212,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,062.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $213k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1749 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,829 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.19%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,062
• List price: $212,999
• Delta: -23.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Autumn Sage Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+3%)	4mo	$230,000	$160	74
5816 Rockrose Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$205,000	$142	69
5711 Bristle Leaf Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-10%)	8mo	$180,625	$144	52
112 Honeysuckle St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	23mo	$285,000	$226	48
228 Jasmine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	22mo	$269,000	$213	44
5922 Wedgemere Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+3%)	23mo	$295,000	$205	43
5125 Greywing Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+14%)	5mo	$320,000	$200	40
5200 Idlewood Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+14%)	20mo	$315,000	$197	26
150 Plumcove Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,550 (+11%)	24mo	$259,000	$167	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-72,368
• Equity at exit: $41,460

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-113,248
• Equity at exit: $24,042

Cash invested: $77,857 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $241,200 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 63 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1749
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,171/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,432

Max offer price $229,301

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-241	+0% $-337	+5% $-433	+10% $-529
Rent	-10% $-495	-5% $-416	+0% $-337	+5% $-258	+10% $-179
Rate	-1.0pp $-197	-0.5pp $-266	base $-337	+0.5pp $-409	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,515
• Closing costs: $8,342
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,186	$1.34	71d	1	0.29mi
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	56d	1	0.29mi
122 Lemongrass Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	3d	1	0.33mi
108 Wyndemere Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,100	$1.46	93d	1	0.34mi
128 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	10d	1	0.37mi
5504 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,999	$1.35	53d	1	0.38mi
136 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,700	$1.34	93d	1	0.39mi
119 Cypress Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,750	$1.39	93d	1	0.44mi
5644 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,800	$1.43	93d	1	0.47mi
5708 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,925	$1.34	93d	1	0.50mi
5733 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,720	$1.36	93d	1	0.52mi
5720 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$2,205	$1.47	54d	1	0.52mi
5724 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,050	$1.62	73d	1	0.53mi
5817 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,624	$1.15	70d	1	0.55mi
5825 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,780	$1.24	93d	1	0.56mi
5620 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,750	$1.22	32d	1	0.56mi
5836 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,875	$1.30	68d	1	0.63mi
5028 Waterway Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,200	$1.38	20d	1	0.64mi
5119 Winterberry Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,090	$1.14	23d	1	0.64mi
5119 Winterberry Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,049	$1.11	12d	1	0.64mi
303 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,849	$1.25	2d	1	0.65mi
303 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,849	$1.25	1d	1	0.65mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,695	$1.14	48d	1	0.67mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,745	$1.18	62d	1	0.67mi
228 Rubylace Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,700	$1.18	93d	1	0.67mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	52d	1	0.68mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	66d	1	0.68mi
330 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,699	$1.15	48d	1	0.69mi
5105 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,795	$1.25	43d	1	0.70mi
404 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	93d	1	0.71mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,849	$1.25	73d	1	0.72mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,649	$1.11	38d	1	0.72mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	73d	1	0.72mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$1,800	$1.07	25d	1	0.73mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,900	$1.13	93d	1	0.73mi
411 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$1,995	$1.19	93d	1	0.73mi
328 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,000	$1.25	0d	1	0.73mi
5119 Penrose Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,095	$1.14	20d	1	0.73mi
5816 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	32d	1	0.74mi
5126 Penrose Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,995	$1.09	0d	1	0.76mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 505 Caraway, Princeton, TX 75407Inventory type: PlanListing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $229,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Kitson)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,402

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Kitson)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $212,999 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $212,999 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $212,999 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $212,999 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $212,999 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $212,999 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $212,999 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $212,999 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $212,999 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $212,999 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $212,999 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $212,999 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $212,999 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $212,999 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $212,999 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $212,999 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $212,999 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $212,999 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $212,999 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $212,999 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $212,999 Active 89 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $212,999 Active 88 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $212,999 Active 87 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $212,999 Active 86 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $212,999 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $212,999 Active 83 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $212,999 Active 82 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $212,999 Active 81 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $212,999 Active 80 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $212,999 Active 79 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $212,999 Active 78 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $212,999 Active 77 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $212,999 Active 76 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $212,999 Active 75 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $212,999 Active 74 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $212,999 Active 73 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $212,999 Active 72 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $212,999 Active 70 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $212,999 Active 68 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $212,999 Active 67 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,999 Active 64 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,999 Active 63 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,999 Active 62 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,999 Active 61 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 59 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 58 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,999 Active 55 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,999 Active 54 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 53 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,576
• − Property taxes: −$4,171
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$8,089
• Taxable loss: −$9,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,010–$21,030 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. Potential value-adding updates include painting the exterior, installing smart home devices, and upgrading lighting fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments can improve both the aesthetic and energy efficiency of the home. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and add value to the home for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures can enhance the home's ambiance and add value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harper El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Clark Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 505 Caraway, Princeton, TX 75407Inventory type: PlanListing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $229,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Kitson)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,402

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Kitson)