426 Pine Manor Dr · Oak Ridge North, TX 77385

$388,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1977 0.29 ac lot $139/sqft · 8% below area Est $424k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the Market! Move-in ready and thoughtfully upgraded, this 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Oak Ridge North is the total package. The fully renovated kitchen shines with granite countertops and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a clean, modern space at the heart of the home.Recent improvements also include fresh interior paint giving buyers confidence from day one. A portion of the detached garage has been converted into a private fourth bedroom with an additional bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or multigenerational living. Step outside to a spacious backyard built for entertaining weekend BBQs, celebrations, or simply enjoying the outdoors. With quick access to I-45, shopping, and dining, this home combines smart updates, functional space, and unbeatable convenience.

Key facts

• Brand-new roof
• Granite countertops
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• PRIVATE FOURTH BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-847 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in TX, #708 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities D+.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,222 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,345
• List price: $388,900
• Delta: -8.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Heather Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,552 (-8%)	5mo	$425,000	$167	70
27286 Jimmy Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,606 (-6%)	3mo	$494,000	$190	69
27241 Wells Ln	0.39mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,744 (-2%)	7mo	$439,900	$160	68
202 Pine Manor Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,749 (-1%)	14mo	$379,900	$138	67
27026 S Pyeatt Ln	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,632 (-6%)	12mo	$490,000	$186	63
119 Laura Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,466 (-12%)	2mo	$355,000	$144	58
27213 Ann Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,686 (-4%)	14mo	$450,000	$168	58
27237 Payne Ct	0.39mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,080 (+10%)	1mo	$429,000	$139	54
27277 Wells Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,451 (-12%)	10mo	$359,000	$146	52
27237 Lana Ln	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,582 (-7%)	10mo	$350,000	$136	51
27122 E Lana Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,631 (-6%)	6mo	$545,000	$207	45
614 Tallow Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	3,080 (+10%)	4mo	$385,000	$125	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-114,618
• Equity at exit: $57,986

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-159,430
• Equity at exit: $33,625

Cash invested: $108,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,039
• Tax from tax record: −$627 /mo · $7,528/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-847

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,581

Max offer price $239,222

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-627	-5% $-737	+0% $-847	+5% $-957	+10% $-1,067
Rent	-10% $-1,045	-5% $-946	+0% $-847	+5% $-748	+10% $-649
Rate	-1.0pp $-651	-0.5pp $-748	base $-847	+0.5pp $-948	+1.0pp $-1,051

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,225
• Closing costs: $11,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27226 Pyeatt Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1933	$1,950	$1.01	4d	1	0.34mi
26715 Westwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2040	$2,131	$1.04	2d	1	1.12mi
1 Riva Row Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1331	$8,323	$6.25	2d	121	1.37mi
111 Bella Luce Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	3027	$3,800	$1.26	16d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Back on the Market! Move-in ready and thoughtfully upgraded, this 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Oak Ridge North is the total package. The fully renovated kitchen shines with granite countertops and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a clean, modern space at the heart of the home.Recent improvements also include fresh interior paint giving buyers confidence from day one. A portion of the detached garage has been converted into a private fourth bedroom with an additional bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or multigenerational living. Step outside to a spacious backyard built for entertaining weekend BBQs, celebrations, or simply enjoying the outdoors. With quick access to I-45, shopping, and dining, this home combines smart updates, functional space, and unbeatable convenience.

2. 2026-04-28
   status Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Back on the Market! Move-in ready and thoughtfully upgraded, this 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Oak Ridge North is the total package. The fully renovated kitchen shines with granite countertops and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a clean, modern space at the heart of the home.Recent improvements also include fresh interior paint giving buyers confidence from day one. A portion of the detached garage has been converted into a private fourth bedroom with an additional bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or multigenerational living. Step outside to a spacious backyard built for entertaining weekend BBQs, celebrations, or simply enjoying the outdoors. With quick access to I-45, shopping, and dining, this home combines smart updates, functional space, and unbeatable convenience.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Back on the Market! Move-in ready and thoughtfully upgraded, this 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Oak Ridge North is the total package. The fully renovated kitchen shines with granite countertops and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a clean, modern space at the heart of the home.Recent improvements also include fresh interior paint giving buyers confidence from day one. A portion of the detached garage has been converted into a private fourth bedroom with an additional bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or multigenerational living. Step outside to a spacious backyard built for entertaining weekend BBQs, celebrations, or simply enjoying the outdoors. With quick access to I-45, shopping, and dining, this home combines smart updates, functional space, and unbeatable convenience.

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $388,900 Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Back on the Market! Move-in ready and thoughtfully upgraded, this 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Oak Ridge North is the total package. The fully renovated kitchen shines with granite countertops and brand-new stainless steel appliances, creating a clean, modern space at the heart of the home.Recent improvements also include fresh interior paint giving buyers confidence from day one. A portion of the detached garage has been converted into a private fourth bedroom with an additional bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or multigenerational living. Step outside to a spacious backyard built for entertaining weekend BBQs, celebrations, or simply enjoying the outdoors. With quick access to I-45, shopping, and dining, this home combines smart updates, functional space, and unbeatable convenience.

5. 2026-04-13
   historical
6. 2026-03-02
   listed $389,900 Active
7. 2016-08-26
   soldstatus
8. 2014-04-08
   historical
9. 2014-04-08
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2013-10-01
    status Pending
11. 2013-09-20
    status Option Pending
12. 2013-08-30
    status Active
13. 2013-08-20
    status Option Pending
14. 2013-07-31
    listed $199,500 Active
15. 2009-09-04
    soldstatus
16. 1991-10-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,528 · $627/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,528 · $627/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,784
• − Property taxes: −$7,528
• − Insurance: −$1,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − Depreciation: −$11,313
• Taxable loss: −$17,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,149
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Ridge North

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #708

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute B- Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Ridge North, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+94.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $388,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2016-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-10-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-08-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-31 Listed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2009-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,528 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.