802 11th Ave N · Moorhead, MN 56560

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,596 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1968 0.41 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Good Bones!!! This 4 bedroom (all on one level), 2 full bathrooms, south facing 2 stall attached garage with big backyard is ready for your personal touches. This is a great opportunity at an affordable price. This property is priced below taxed assessed value.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-100/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Moorhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#143 in MN, #3,111 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moorhead Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moorhead Alc (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #456 of 471 statewide, top 99%, 179 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 34% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-32 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Moorhead Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 269 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $185,488 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,774
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-43,100
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56560

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,098/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $198,534

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
810 4th Ave S Unit 138 Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,325	$0.76	21d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2021-11-24
   historical
2. 2021-10-04
   listed $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,098 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,098 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,098
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$821
• After-tax cash flow: $722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moorhead Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721420
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,009
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #4560
• State rank: #202 of 301 in MN

Livability — Moorhead

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #3111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moorhead, MN
• County: Clay County · 44,405 people
• City population: 44,405
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 44,405
• Household income: $75,406
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2229.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,880 people
• By 2030: 70,881 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 76,865 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 83,205 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 98,719 · +45.4%
• By 2100: 111,657 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.2% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+8.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.32%
• Current HPI: 177.038
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2021-11-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-04 Listed $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,098 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.