1903 Mustang Springs Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,829 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1977 7,200 sqft lot Est $271k · 8% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATH FLOOR PLAN. HOME IS GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING AS IT HAS BOTH FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOMS. HIGH CEILINGS AND FIREPLACE IN LARGE LIVING ROOM, LUSH LANDSCAPE ON THE BACKYARD WITH STORAGE SHED! DON'T WAIT ANY LONGER, THIS IS A MUST SEE! ZONED TO EXEMPLARY SCHOOLS.

Key facts

• Inviting foyer
• Half vaulted ceiling
• High accent windows

Tags

• INVITING FOYER
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• HALF VAULTED CEILING
• HIGH ACCENT WINDOWS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Thunderbird North) with annual fee of $195; Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage with door opener; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with generator
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Located in a subdivision; Concrete road access
• Construction: Built in 1977; Brick and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard with backyard fence; Paved driveway; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Oven; Pantry; Breakfast nook
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 13 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,261 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,692
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-5%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	80
1615 Turtle Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,721 (-6%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	77
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+0%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	74
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-8%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	67
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (+11%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	67
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-5%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	65
1519 Wells Manor Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (+3%)	1mo	$327,000	$174	60
2726 Valley Forest Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,937 (+6%)	4mo	$298,000	$154	58
3819 Glen Cove Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-4%)	2mo	$228,000	$130	58
3710 Quail Meadow Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-8%)	3mo	$250,000	$149	55
8618 Quail Vista Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+8%)	3mo	$267,000	$135	51
1927 S Bend Cir	0.65mi	3/3.0	1,985 (+8%)	4mo	$265,000	$134	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,209
• Equity at exit: $52,432

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,443
• Equity at exit: $48,565

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,259/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $220,166

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	44d	1	0.47mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	44d	1	0.56mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	17d	1	0.57mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	44d	1	0.59mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.64mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	0.84mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	13d	1	1.36mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	21d	1	1.37mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	1.42mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	21d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    listed $250,000 Active
15. 2020-06-18
    soldstatus Sold 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATH FLOOR PLAN. HOME IS GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING AS IT HAS BOTH FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOMS. HIGH CEILINGS AND FIREPLACE IN LARGE LIVING ROOM, LUSH LANDSCAPE ON THE BACKYARD WITH STORAGE SHED! DON'T WAIT ANY LONGER, THIS IS A MUST SEE! ZONED TO EXEMPLARY SCHOOLS.

16. 2020-06-18
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATH FLOOR PLAN. HOME IS GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING AS IT HAS BOTH FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOMS. HIGH CEILINGS AND FIREPLACE IN LARGE LIVING ROOM, LUSH LANDSCAPE ON THE BACKYARD WITH STORAGE SHED! DON'T WAIT ANY LONGER, THIS IS A MUST SEE! ZONED TO EXEMPLARY SCHOOLS.

17. 2020-05-24
    status Pending 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATH FLOOR PLAN. HOME IS GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING AS IT HAS BOTH FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOMS. HIGH CEILINGS AND FIREPLACE IN LARGE LIVING ROOM, LUSH LANDSCAPE ON THE BACKYARD WITH STORAGE SHED! DON'T WAIT ANY LONGER, THIS IS A MUST SEE! ZONED TO EXEMPLARY SCHOOLS.

18. 2020-05-21
    status Option Pending 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATH FLOOR PLAN. HOME IS GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING AS IT HAS BOTH FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOMS. HIGH CEILINGS AND FIREPLACE IN LARGE LIVING ROOM, LUSH LANDSCAPE ON THE BACKYARD WITH STORAGE SHED! DON'T WAIT ANY LONGER, THIS IS A MUST SEE! ZONED TO EXEMPLARY SCHOOLS.

19. 2020-04-27
    listed $193,900 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATH FLOOR PLAN. HOME IS GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING AS IT HAS BOTH FORMAL LIVING AND FORMAL DINING ROOMS. HIGH CEILINGS AND FIREPLACE IN LARGE LIVING ROOM, LUSH LANDSCAPE ON THE BACKYARD WITH STORAGE SHED! DON'T WAIT ANY LONGER, THIS IS A MUST SEE! ZONED TO EXEMPLARY SCHOOLS.

20. 2016-05-18
    soldstatus
21. 2015-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,259 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,259 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,259
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,507
• After-tax cash flow: $-520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-27 Listed $193,900 HARMLS
• 2016-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,259 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.