8210 Jacksontown Rd · Quantico Base, VA 20662

$173,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1989 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#388 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, employment B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 24% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $174k implies a 769% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $37,926
• Equity at exit: $74,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $110,882
• Equity at exit: $112,711

Cash invested: $48,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20662

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$911
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,915/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $173,800

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,450
• Closing costs: $5,214
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $173,800 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $173,800 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-03-03
   price $173,800
4. 2026-01-27
   historical $135,000
5. 2023-10-14
   listed $140,000 Active
6. 2023-10-14
   historical
7. 2023-10-14
   historical
8. 2014-02-24
   historical Withdrawn
9. 2014-02-24
   historical
10. 2013-06-12
    listed Active
11. 2013-06-12
    listed $80,000
12. 1990-05-03
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,736
• − Property taxes: −$1,915
• − Insurance: −$1,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$5,056
• Taxable income: $1,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$263
• After-tax cash flow: $3,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Quantico Base

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #388
• US rank: #15868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,326

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 26% Native American 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Current HPI: 262.0092
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+769.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $173,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Coming Soon $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-14 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-14 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-02-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-12 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-06-12 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,915 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.