2132 Hidden Valley Dr · Centerville, TN 37137

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 2014 Fair condition 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Hidden Valley Lakes, a private gated community nestled in the heart of Middle Tennessee. This unique offering includes two parcels totaling approximately 0.85 acres that must be purchased together and will not be sold separately. * * Lot 4 * * is offered at * * $50,000 * * and features a cozy 750± sq ft cabin with 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, a wood-burning stove, mini refrigerator, and security camera system. * * Lot 5 * * , an adjoining vacant lot, is offered at * * $10,000 * * and provides additional privacy, recreational space, or future possibilities. Lot 5 is listed separately under MLS #3224307. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, hunting getaway, inv

Key facts

• Two parcels
• Recreational space
• Wood burning stove

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED COMMUNITY
• TWO PARCELS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• SECURITY CAMERA SYSTEM
• ADDITIONAL PRIVACY
• RECREATIONAL SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approx. 750 square feet living area; Lot size approx. 0.4 acres
• HOA & community: Gated community; Community pool; Playground; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; 2 covered spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car carport (has carport); Aggregate surface
• Security: Security gate; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cistern water; Septic tank sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story; Entry level on main floor
• Construction: Wood siding; Aluminum roof; Block foundation; Existing (built previously)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen approx. 16 x 11; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level); Primary bedroom approx. 15 x 11; Second bedroom approx. 11 x 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: High ceilings; Crawl space basement; Wood burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($820 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 1.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#62 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary (388 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 468 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.91%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $46,494
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.70×
• Total profit: $121,804
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37137

• Home prices YoY: 13.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $337	-5% $320	+0% $302	+5% $285	+10% $268
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $270	+0% $302	+5% $335	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $315	base $302	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-29
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$787
• − Management: −$787
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,010
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$722
• After-tax cash flow: $2,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires significant repairs and maintenance, including painting the exterior siding, replacing the flooring, repairing or replacing the roof, and repairing or replacing the fencing. These updates would significantly increase the home's resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting or replacement.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the living room appears to be carpeted and in need of replacement.
• Major bathroom — The bathroom appears to be in poor condition, with outdated fixtures and a worn shower curtain.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale replace flooring — Replacing the carpeted flooring with a more modern and durable option can improve the home's resale value.
• Resale repair/replace roof — Repairing or replacing the roof can improve the home's overall condition and increase its resale value.
• Resale repair/replace fencing — Repairing or replacing the fencing can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring in the living room appears to be carpeted and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom · The bathroom appears to be in poor condition, with outdated fixtures and a worn shower curtain.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale replace flooring — Replacing the carpeted flooring with a more modern and durable option can improve the home's resale value. ↑
• Resale repair/replace roof — Repairing or replacing the roof can improve the home's overall condition and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale repair/replace fencing — Repairing or replacing the fencing can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #8292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,999

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.56%
• Current HPI: 106.4702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $50,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid