78 Melvin Rd · Big Bass Lake, PA 18424

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 1993 0.92 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an affordable double-wide mobile home that offers comfort and convenience in a prime outdoor setting. Situated on a full unfinished basement, the home features propane heat, a spacious storage shed, and a two-car carport. It's being sold as is and with your personal touches and minimal work. Best of all, you can walk directly to nearby state lands and outdoor recreation.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1993

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.8% in Big Bass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#763 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moscow El Sch (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #123 of 1,518 statewide, top 9%, 591 students, 43% FRL); North Pocono Ms (math 25% / reading 69%, grade D+, #163 of 512 statewide, top 33%, 665 students, 36% FRL); North Pocono Hs (math 72%, 905 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $66,929
• Equity at exit: $75,056

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.62×
• Total profit: $175,817
• Equity at exit: $151,899

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18424

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $459	-5% $426	+0% $393	+5% $360	+10% $327
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $341	+0% $393	+5% $446	+10% $498
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $417	base $393	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $94,900 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $94,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $94,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $94,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $94,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-04-16
   listed $94,900 Active 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Looking for an affordable double-wide mobile home that offers comfort and convenience in a prime outdoor setting. Situated on a full unfinished basement, the home features propane heat, a spacious storage shed, and a two-car carport. It's being sold as is and with your personal touches and minimal work. Best of all, you can walk directly to nearby state lands and outdoor recreation.

7. 2016-05-17
   listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $3,409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$818
• After-tax cash flow: $3,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pocono SD
• NCES district ID: 4217310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,555
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1894
• State rank: #82 of 539 in PA

Livability — Big Bass Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #7622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,076

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.45%
• Current HPI: 399.903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $94,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2016-05-17 Listed $99,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+25.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $28,255 · +828.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.