Plan 1243 Modeled Plan · San Antonio, TX 78112

$178,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · SingleFamily · 304 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Low-e windows
• Front porch

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• 42-IN GARDEN TUB
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• FRONT PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $178,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $229,730.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-379 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,022 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,730
• List price: $178,995
• Delta: -22.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5026 Kayak Cv	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	8mo	$202,857	$163	90
5222 Big Oak Run	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	3mo	$190,915	$154	81
5126 Big Oak Run	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	4mo	$206,872	$167	81
14438 Stinger Hook	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	7mo	$190,700	$154	80
14318 Calaveras Cv	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	18mo	$226,435	$182	79
5102 Big Oak Run	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	11mo	$199,192	$160	75
5018 Kayak Cv	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+11%)	11mo	$207,633	$151	71
14311 Calaveras Cv	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+14%)	11mo	$199,167	$141	63
14327 Calaveras Cv	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+14%)	14mo	$208,081	$147	59
14351 Calaveras Cv	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+14%)	13mo	$209,706	$148	58
14451 Stinger Hook	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+14%)	10mo	$206,929	$146	55
14442 Calaveras Cv	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+14%)	17mo	$220,277	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-34,107
• Equity at exit: $64,815

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,467
• Equity at exit: $76,417

Cash invested: $64,324 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,446/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,010

Max offer price $171,496

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,433
• Closing costs: $6,892
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14050 Southton Rd Elmendorf, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$1,550	$1.85	1d	18	0.25mi
13203 Winemaker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1486	$1,850	$1.24	24d	1	0.79mi
10921 Presa Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,450	$1.07	43d	1	0.86mi
14007 Southton Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,465	$0.99	43d	1	0.91mi
14023 Southton Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,300	$0.88	24d	1	0.93mi
4343 Open Water San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,595	$1.10	43d	1	0.95mi
4206 Osmosis Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	22d	1	1.14mi
14318 Calaveras Crk San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,525	$1.02	1d	1	1.16mi
4136 Cove Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	1d	1	1.17mi
4110 Cross Current San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	2d	1	1.22mi
4105 Water Fall Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,525	$1.02	1d	1	1.25mi
4150 Southton Tarn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,100	$0.89	24d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,995 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,995 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,995 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,995 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,995 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,995 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,995 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $178,995 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $178,995 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,995 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,995 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,995 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,995 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $178,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

15. 2026-04-06
    price $188,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

16. 2026-02-27
    price $186,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

17. 2026-01-24
    price $179,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

18. 2025-10-15
    price $189,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

19. 2025-10-14
    price $187,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

20. 2025-09-29
    price $183,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

21. 2025-09-03
    price $181,995 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

22. 2025-08-18
    listed $179,995 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Polyester textured carpeting * LED lighting * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Low-E windows * Front porch * Split-bedroom layout * Eat-in kitchen * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,868
• − Property taxes: −$3,446
• − Insurance: −$1,149
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,683
• Taxable loss: −$9,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with fresh paint and landscaping, making it a move-in-ready property with good resale and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding and repainting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value
• Both Smart thermostat replacement — Modern smart thermostat improves energy efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding and repainting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Smart thermostat replacement — Modern smart thermostat improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $178,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $188,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $186,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $179,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $189,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $187,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $183,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $181,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-18 Listed $179,995 Zillow