3 Lerner Dr · Calistoga, CA 04515

$1,790,999

4 bd · 5.5 ba · 4,069 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition 0.25 ac lot Garage $440/sqft · 21% below area Est $2.254M · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked along a quiet, oak-lined lane, this fully furnished French inspired château rises above the vineyards with an effortless blend of sophistication and wine country warmth. Lavender and towering old trees surround the estate, while Mount St. Helena forms a dramatic backdrop. The 4bedroom, 4.5-bath residence offers spacious ensuite rooms, soaring ceilings, and a refined mix of marble, wood, and custom finishes, along with a private entertainment suite complete with a kitchenette and half bath. All luxury furnishings are included. Inside, bespoke details and sun-filled suites create an atmosphere of understated elegance.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $1.79M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($49k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.79M).
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.6% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calistoga Elementary (412 students, 82% FRL); Calistoga Junior/Senior High (380 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 58% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $501k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,764,134 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.78%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,253,952
• List price: $1,790,999
• Delta: -20.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 Diamond Mountain Rd	1.10mi	4/4.5	3,100 (-24%)	10mo	$3,200,000	$1,032	28
971 Petrified Forest Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0	3,179 (-22%)	16mo	$2,200,000	$692	27
912 Washington St	0.55mi	5/2.0 (+1)	4,290 (+5%)	32mo	$1,050,000	$245	26
375 Kortum Canyon Rd	0.46mi	5/3.5 (+1)	4,622 (+14%)	34mo	$3,500,000	$757	23
3121 Ca-128 Hwy	1.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,300 (-19%)	5mo	$1,711,125	$519	20
1706 Garnett Creek Ct	0.94mi	4/3.0	3,168 (-22%)	13mo	$2,251,350	$711	19
910 Highland Ct	0.70mi	4/3.5	3,330 (-18%)	33mo	$1,825,000	$548	14
939 Highland Ct	0.70mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,108 (-24%)	22mo	$2,200,000	$708	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $476,396
• Equity at exit: $805,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $1,331,794
• Equity at exit: $1,241,080

Cash invested: $501,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active
• Median asking: $2,440,000 ($756/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -26.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 04515

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,392
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,239 /mo · $26,865/yr
• Insurance: −$746
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,377
• Net cashflow: $4,087

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,667

Max offer price $1,790,999

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,325	-5% $4,706	+0% $4,087	+5% $3,469	+10% $2,850
Rent	-10% $2,441	-5% $3,264	+0% $4,087	+5% $4,911	+10% $5,734
Rate	-1.0pp $4,989	-0.5pp $4,543	base $4,087	+0.5pp $3,623	+1.0pp $3,151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $447,750
• Closing costs: $53,730
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1823 Foothill Blvd Calistoga, CA	4.0	3.5	2889	$9,900	$3.43	0d	1	0.26mi
375 Kortum Canyon Rd Calistoga, CA	4.0	4.5	4622	$37,000	$8.01	116d	1	0.47mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spacesDrive-through parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyBuilt in 1991
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: DeckCovered rear porchFront yard and backyardTerraced rear yardLow-maintenance landscapingYard spaceWood fencing (fenced yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with additional/other features
• Bedrooms: Multiple additional rooms including au pair suite and bonus/bedroom-capable spaces
• Bathrooms: 6 bathrooms (5 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: AtriumAu pair/secondary suiteDenFamily roomLibraryMusic roomStudy/officeUnfinished roomUtility room2 fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $1,790,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,790,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $1,790,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $2,000,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,000,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,000,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,000,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $2,000,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    historical $2,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $250,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,324
• − Property taxes: −$26,865
• − Insurance: −$8,955
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,008
• − Management: −$20,008
• − Depreciation: −$52,102
• Taxable income: $21,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,240
• After-tax cash flow: $43,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $20,345–$61,035 screening

This French-inspired château is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a stunning view. It's move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calistoga Elementary High Calistoga Junior/senior High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA

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Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spacesDrive-through parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residenceResidential propertyBuilt in 1991
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: DeckCovered rear porchFront yard and backyardTerraced rear yardLow-maintenance landscapingYard spaceWood fencing (fenced yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with additional/other features
• Bedrooms: Multiple additional rooms including au pair suite and bonus/bedroom-capable spaces
• Bathrooms: 6 bathrooms (5 full, 1 partial)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: AtriumAu pair/secondary suiteDenFamily roomLibraryMusic roomStudy/officeUnfinished roomUtility room2 fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Utility room