2405 Lawndale Dr · Champaign, IL 61821

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,045 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1959 7,405 sqft lot Est $172k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for new owners. For a list of investment properties available and current rent roll contact the listing agent.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($218/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Champaign — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#44 in IL, #902 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Champaign CUSD 4 (urban): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #333 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Stratton Elementary School (math 12% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,673 of 2,056 statewide, top 84%, 476 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (math 9% / reading 18%, grade F, #535 of 665 statewide, top 81%, 738 students, 0% FRL); Central High School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #125 of 693 statewide, top 18%, 1,597 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $153,852 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,425
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2705 Willowpark Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,053 (+1%)	1mo	$190,000	$180	84
2704 W Kirby Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,095 (+5%)	0mo	$173,000	$158	80
2412 Lawndale Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,167 (+12%)	1mo	$150,000	$129	77
2504 Hathaway Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	939 (-10%)	2mo	$174,900	$186	72
2003 W Kirby Ave	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,130 (+8%)	1mo	$175,000	$155	65
902 Oakcrest Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+3%)	2mo	$170,000	$159	64
1610 Stratford Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	921 (-12%)	3mo	$180,000	$195	63
1208 S Duncan Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,025 (-2%)	1mo	$178,000	$174	63
1805 Southwood Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	925 (-12%)	1mo	$117,500	$127	53
2409 W John St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,181 (+13%)	0mo	$195,000	$165	46
1818 Stratford Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,194 (+14%)	1mo	$287,000	$240	45
1612 Cornell Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,192 (+14%)	2mo	$188,000	$158	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,208
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $22,791
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61821

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,539 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,826/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,516

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $66	+0% $18	+5% $-30	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-43	+0% $18	+5% $79	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $61	base $18	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1902 Meadow Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	898	$1,750	$1.95	15d	1	0.46mi
910 S Duncan Rd Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	45d	1	0.66mi
1915 S Mattis Ave Champaign, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,099	$2.16	15d	11	0.73mi
801 Hollycrest Dr Unit 4 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,054	$1.36	46d	1	0.74mi
801 Hollycrest Dr Unit 3 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,054	$1.51	15d	1	0.74mi
1802 W William St Unit 1804-6 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.5	805	$925	$1.15	15d	1	0.75mi
2003 W John St Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	15d	1	0.77mi
604 English Creek Ct Unit 1 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,235	$1.24	15d	1	0.82mi
1801 W John St Unit 1821 Champaign, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,390	$1.16	15d	1	0.83mi
1801 W John St Unit 723 Champaign, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,390	$1.16	22d	1	0.84mi
618 Dogwood Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	1.0	1073	$2,200	$2.05	15d	1	0.92mi
2503 W Springfield Ave Champaign, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	923	$1,360	$1.47	15d	44	0.93mi
410 Ginger Bend Dr Champaign, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,580	$1.73	15d	18	0.97mi
1603 Sandpiper Ct Champaign, IL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,675	$1.40	45d	1	1.02mi
2406 Leeper Dr Unit Aceves 1 Champaign, IL	2.0	1.5	950	$3,000	$3.16	15d	1	1.20mi
3907 Balmoral Dr Champaign, IL	3.0	2.5	1452	$1,995	$1.37	15d	1	1.31mi
3901 Crowwood Dr Unit 3901-M-204 Champaign, IL	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,480	$1.31	15d	1	1.36mi
3901 Crowwood Dr Champaign, IL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,410	$1.25	45d	7	1.38mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-28
   historical
2. 2026-04-28
   historical
3. 2026-04-28
   listed $169,900
4. 2025-03-24
   historical $1,550
5. 2025-03-20
   listed $1,550
6. 2022-08-12
   soldstatus $125,750
7. 2022-08-04
   soldstatus $125,750 Closed 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for new owners. For a list of investment properties available and current rent roll contact the listing agent.

8. 2022-04-18
   historical Contingent - No Showings 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for new owners. For a list of investment properties available and current rent roll contact the listing agent.

9. 2022-04-12
   listed $125,000 Active 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   Don't miss out on this great investment opportunity! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for new owners. For a list of investment properties available and current rent roll contact the listing agent.

10. 2022-04-10
    price $1,225
11. 2008-07-03
    soldstatus $446,000
12. 2008-07-02
    soldstatus $90,000
13. 2008-06-18
    listed $88,000
14. 2008-06-18
    historical
15. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus $86,500
16. 2005-03-02
    historical
17. 2005-02-21
    listed $94,900
18. 1999-10-18
    soldstatus $57,000
19. 1999-10-15
    soldstatus $57,000
20. 1999-09-20
    historical
21. 1999-08-27
    listed $59,900
22. 1995-05-18
    soldstatus $31,660
23. 1995-05-18
    soldstatus $35,330

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,826 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,342 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,826
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$631
• After-tax cash flow: $848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Champaign CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1709420
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,797
• Composite: 21.66/100
• National rank: #8281
• State rank: #333 of 620 in IL

Livability — Champaign

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #902

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Champaign, IL
• County: Champaign County · 182,148 people
• City population: 96,852
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,611
• Household income: $70,715
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1023.0

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 23% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.19%
• Current HPI: 221.1245
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.29%
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+436.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $169,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Rental Removed $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-20 Listed for Rent $1,550 BUILDIUM
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $125,750 Public Records
• 2022-08-04 Sold (MLS) $125,750 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-18 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-12 Listed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-10 Price Changed $1,225 RENT.
• 2008-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $446,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-02 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-18 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-18 Listed $88,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-01 Sold (MLS) $86,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-02 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-21 Listed $94,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-15 Sold (MLS) $57,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-20 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-27 Listed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $35,330 Public Records
• 1995-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $31,660 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,826 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.