509 American Elm Dr · Josephine, TX 75173

$280,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,089 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 2026 $135/sqft · 15% below area Est $332k · 15% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful Express Series home plan offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes a sink, non-framed mirror and plenty of counter space. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes laminate wood plank in living areas and ½" carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Front facing garage
• Decorative hardware

Tags

• CUSTOM DESIGNED ELEVATION
• DIVIDED LIGHT WINDOWS
• FRONT FACING GARAGE
• DECORATIVE HARDWARE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• RAISED PANEL FIBERGLASS DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,923 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,995
• List price: $280,990
• Delta: -15.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-3%)	2mo	$291,535	$144	79
500 Northern Red Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+11%)	1mo	$303,490	$131	78
1133 Bristlecone Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,024 (-3%)	0mo	$324,990	$161	77
516 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-3%)	1mo	$301,490	$148	77
708 Wisteria Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,155 (+3%)	1mo	$255,000	$118	76
205 Weathered Way	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,042 (-2%)	2mo	$342,990	$168	75
300 Concord Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+0%)	2mo	$297,990	$142	69
506 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-14%)	1mo	$290,990	$162	62
505 Silver Birch Dr	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,938 (-7%)	0mo	$269,990	$139	62
407 Saddle Blanket Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,801 (-14%)	2mo	$273,990	$152	60
207 Saddletree Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,368 (+13%)	1mo	$351,205	$148	57
508 Northern Red Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,916 (-8%)	1mo	$279,990	$146	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $134,509
• Equity at exit: $253,138

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $410,762
• Equity at exit: $545,902

Cash invested: $78,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,215/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $238,829

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,248
• Closing costs: $8,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	0.26mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	15d	1	0.28mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	6d	1	0.28mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	43d	1	0.31mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	0.77mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	43d	1	0.79mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	0.80mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.89mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	0.90mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	5d	1	0.92mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	2d	1	0.92mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	0.94mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	0.94mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	12d	1	1.00mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	43d	1	1.02mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	12d	1	1.09mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	1.10mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	24d	1	1.15mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	43d	1	1.15mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$2,100	$1.05	12d	1	1.21mi
1503 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	43d	1	1.22mi
1501 Bridle Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	43d	1	1.25mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	43d	1	1.29mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	7d	1	1.31mi
1413 Thunder Canyon Way Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	2006	$2,500	$1.25	43d	1	1.42mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-04
   price $280,990 1414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1414 chars)

   This beautiful Express Series home plan offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes a sink, non-framed mirror and plenty of counter space. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes laminate wood plank in living areas and ½" carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

2. 2026-03-11
   price $278,990 1414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1414 chars)

   This beautiful Express Series home plan offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes a sink, non-framed mirror and plenty of counter space. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes laminate wood plank in living areas and ½" carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

3. 2026-02-17
   price $288,990 1414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1414 chars)

   This beautiful Express Series home plan offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes a sink, non-framed mirror and plenty of counter space. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes laminate wood plank in living areas and ½" carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

4. 2026-01-27
   listed $287,990 Active 1414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1414 chars)

   This beautiful Express Series home plan offers a blend of comfort and functionality, designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles. The exterior of the home includes a custom and architecturally designed elevation. The front exterior of the home boasts divided light windows and a front facing garage with decorative hardware and handles on the garage door. Enter the home through the covered front porch that leads to the raised panel fiberglass insulated front door (decorative front door options are available for upgrade). Opening the door will lead you to a foyer entry that invites you to the rest of the home. The kitchen features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The kitchen layout includes a built-in sink, dishwasher and large pantry for plenty of storage space. The large primary bedroom features an adjoined bathroom that will make getting ready in the mornings feel like a dream. The elongated vanity includes a sink, non-framed mirror and plenty of counter space. The primary bathroom also includes a walk-in shower and walk-in closet. This plan includes laminate wood plank in living areas and ½" carpet in bedrooms. Additional bonus features include a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,740
• − Property taxes: −$4,215
• − Insurance: −$1,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$8,174
• Taxable loss: −$8,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $280,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Listed $287,990 Zillow