10 Saint Croix St · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$285,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $311k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Yellowstone model, holiday city, 55 years and older, senior community. gas hot water, baseboard heat, central ac. corner lot. house being sold as is condition, needs work.

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1973
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,124
• Exterior features: Located in the Holiday City-Berkeley subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,513/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $285k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,290 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.13%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,348
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 Scarborough Pl	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	2mo	$265,000	$236	91
324 Saint Thomas Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,124 (0%)	0mo	$339,000	$302	89
61 Falmouth St	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,124 (0%)	1mo	$380,000	$338	82
25 Saint Martin Pl	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-3%)	1mo	$275,000	$252	81
37 Carlisle Rd	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,121 (-0%)	1mo	$310,000	$277	81
1 Hampshire Rd	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,121 (-0%)	2mo	$315,000	$281	79
495 Jamaica Blvd	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-3%)	0mo	$325,000	$298	78
1 Miles Pond Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,105 (-2%)	2mo	$164,000	$148	77
5 Martinique Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	0mo	$324,888	$289	74
9 Carlisle Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,059 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$208	74
3 Montego St	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$254,500	$207	66
76 Troumaka St	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$286,000	$232	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-37,218
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-20,976
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,766/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,334

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $222	+0% $141	+5% $61	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $42	+0% $141	+5% $241	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $214	base $141	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	0.29mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	0.50mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	0d	1	0.61mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	0d	1	0.88mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $285,000 Active 171-char remark
17. 1992-04-06
    soldstatus $94,250
18. 1989-07-12
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,766 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,931 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,165/yr (+$180/mo · 78.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,766
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$3,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$748
• After-tax cash flow: $2,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+375.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $285,000 FSBO.com
• 1992-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $94,250 Public Records
• 1989-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,766 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.