4276 Monhegan Way · Mather, CA 95655

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,139 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2000 5,523 sqft lot $350/sqft · 19% below area Est $493k · 19% under $120/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

MARVELOUS, REMODELED & MOVE IN MATHER! 2 Bedroom/2 Bath home was originally a 3 Bedroom home and wall can be be added again. Gorgeous kitchen with quality maple, breakfast bar, and an island was installed with granite countertops, stainless steel gas stove & stainless steel sink. Vaulted ceilings and wood flooring throughout. Fabulous floorplan with bedroom on opposite side. Beautifully landscaped backyard & covered patio extends outdoor living space. Fruit persimmmon, cherry, and lime trees. Near school, parks & tennis courts. Every lawn in Mather is mowed and neighborhood looks PERFECT!

Key facts

• 5,523 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $120; HOA maintains grounds; Community amenities include barbeque, playground and park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage door opener; Garage facing front
• Utilities: Public water (water district); Sewer to street; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Tract home; One-story
• Construction: Built in 2000; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing, fully fenced yard; Landscaped front and back; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice maker; Granite countertops; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3); Master bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower stall(s), granite and tile; Other bath(s) with granite, tile, tub with shower over, and low-flow toilet(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room; Dining and living room combined; Granite counters in kitchen and bathrooms; Island in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Gas hook-up for laundry; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-586 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#675 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $399k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,839 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $492,801
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -19.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4293 Stromford Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,139 (0%)	3mo	$480,000	$421	94
4266 Stromford Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,139 (0%)	14mo	$495,000	$435	87
10817 Ivoryton Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,139 (0%)	15mo	$470,000	$413	75
4606 Excelsior Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,139 (0%)	16mo	$460,000	$404	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-42,945
• Equity at exit: $122,290

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-26,206
• Equity at exit: $152,236

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95655

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,593/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,390

Max offer price $295,511

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-360	-5% $-473	+0% $-586	+5% $-699	+10% $-812
Rent	-10% $-795	-5% $-690	+0% $-586	+5% $-481	+10% $-377
Rate	-1.0pp $-385	-0.5pp $-484	base $-586	+0.5pp $-689	+1.0pp $-794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $399,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2016-12-09
    soldstatus $220,000
14. 2001-02-16
    soldstatus $160,000
15. 2001-02-16
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,593 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,593 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,593
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,542
• − Management: −$2,542
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$14,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom-Cordova Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $75,408
• Composite: 24.49/100
• National rank: #7656
• State rank: #365 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mather

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #675
• US rank: #20748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mather, CA
• City population: 26,061
• Population (ZIP): 5,029

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Black 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Current HPI: 131.1788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+37.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2016-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,593 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.