1051 CR 464 · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$162,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1958 0.42 ac lot Est $171k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

NEW ROOF and Completely renovated 2/2 single family home on quiet paved county road and located on a 0.46 acres lot. Many recent updates have been made including all new kitchen cabinets, counters, and appliances. Other upgrades include a completely remodeled bathroom and Kitchen, new flooring throughout, interior paint, and light fixtures. The plumbing has also been updated including a new water heater. There are several boat ramps close by providing access to beautiful Lake Panasoffkee and the Withlacoochee River. All this and much more conveniently located 5 minutes from I-75, 15 minutes from The Villages, 1 hour from Orlando or Tampa. This one won't last.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single-family; Zoned RES
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area approximately 932 sq ft (living area listed as 820 sq ft)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 200 (0.42 acres); Lot size about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $162k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $162k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,169 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,560
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1134 CR 464	0.10mi	2/1.0	780 (-5%)	10mo	$80,000	$103	75
1232 County Road 461	0.34mi	2/2.0	841 (+3%)	20mo	$130,000	$155	63
1924 CR 439c	0.47mi	2/1.0	760 (-7%)	22mo	$180,000	$237	44
1383 CR 437	0.74mi	2/1.5	867 (+6%)	14mo	$180,000	$208	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $44,464
• Equity at exit: $91,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $128,014
• Equity at exit: $158,124

Cash invested: $45,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $162,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $161	+0% $115	+5% $69	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $62	+0% $115	+5% $168	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $156	base $115	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,500
• Closing costs: $4,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1115 NW 12th Ln Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,295	$1.65	23d	1	0.47mi
1314 CR 443 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	973	$1,575	$1.62	23d	1	0.87mi
2248 CR 446 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,225	$1.88	23d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $162,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $162,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   price $162,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $165,000
11. 2026-05-04
    listed $172,000 Active
12. 2001-12-07
    soldstatus $41,000
13. 1997-12-15
    soldstatus $28,000
14. 1978-01-01
    soldstatus $18,500
15. 1978-01-01
    soldstatus $98,500
16. 1977-03-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$915/yr (+$76/mo · 213.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,075
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$4,713
• Taxable loss: −$1,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $1,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1275.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $172,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1977-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.