7953 Crawford Rd · Laurel Hill, FL 32567

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1985 10 ac lot $164/sqft · 23% below area Est $388k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the tranquility of country living in this charming custom-built cabin set on a sprawling 10-acre parcel. This two-story rustic home is surrounded by natural beauty and offers a unique setting of privacy and peaceful surroundings. Envision gardening, enjoying outdoor recreation, or relaxing among nature. A large workshop and carport are included. Step inside to discover a warm and inviting interior, featuring abundant natural light, impressive woodwork, an open living space and tall cathedral ceilings. The primary bedroom is located on the first floor, with additional bedrooms on the second floor in a loft-style setting. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this unique country property offers a rare opportunity to own your own slice of paradise.

Key facts

• Carport
• 10 acre parcel
• Open living space

Tags

• 10 ACRE PARCEL
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• CARPORT
• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• TALL CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• LOFT STYLE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (38.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Laurel Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#759 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,385 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,994
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -22.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-67,841
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,503
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32567

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $696/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $245,681

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    status Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Escape to the tranquility of country living in this charming custom-built cabin set on a sprawling 10-acre parcel. This two-story rustic home is surrounded by natural beauty and offers a unique setting of privacy and peaceful surroundings. Envision gardening, enjoying outdoor recreation, or relaxing among nature. A large workshop and carport are included. Step inside to discover a warm and inviting interior, featuring abundant natural light, impressive woodwork, an open living space and tall cathedral ceilings. The primary bedroom is located on the first floor, with additional bedrooms on the second floor in a loft-style setting. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this unique country property offers a rare opportunity to own your own slice of paradise.

17. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Escape to the tranquility of country living in this charming custom-built cabin set on a sprawling 10-acre parcel. This two-story rustic home is surrounded by natural beauty and offers a unique setting of privacy and peaceful surroundings. Envision gardening, enjoying outdoor recreation, or relaxing among nature. A large workshop and carport are included. Step inside to discover a warm and inviting interior, featuring abundant natural light, impressive woodwork, an open living space and tall cathedral ceilings. The primary bedroom is located on the first floor, with additional bedrooms on the second floor in a loft-style setting. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this unique country property offers a rare opportunity to own your own slice of paradise.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $299,000 Active 799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Escape to the tranquility of country living in this charming custom-built cabin set on a sprawling 10-acre parcel. This two-story rustic home is surrounded by natural beauty and offers a unique setting of privacy and peaceful surroundings. Envision gardening, enjoying outdoor recreation, or relaxing among nature. A large workshop and carport are included. Step inside to discover a warm and inviting interior, featuring abundant natural light, impressive woodwork, an open living space and tall cathedral ceilings. The primary bedroom is located on the first floor, with additional bedrooms on the second floor in a loft-style setting. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway, this unique country property offers a rare opportunity to own your own slice of paradise.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $696 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,786/yr (+$149/mo · 256.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$696
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,197
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Laurel Hill

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #16757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,820

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.00%
• Current HPI: 236.47
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-04-16 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $299,000 ECAR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $696 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.