12 Linda Ct · Freedom Plains, NY 12603

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1984 1.20 ac lot ↓ 54% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale – Subject to Third Party Approval. Property requires a total renovation including kitchen, baths, roof, siding, flooring, mechanicals, and major interior/exterior repairs. Deck and pool need full restoration. Being sold strictly as-is, cash only; buyer responsible for all inspections, permits, and repairs.

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 3.4% in Freedom Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.83%
• DSCR: 5.17
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $493,240
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Mandalay Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,932 (-8%)	7mo	$450,000	$233	46
24 Sedgewick Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-12%)	4mo	$435,000	$236	44
3 Cromwell Dr	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,806 (-14%)	9mo	$415,000	$230	29
95 Mandalay Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	22mo	$456,000	$253	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $119,514
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.60×
• Total profit: $268,670
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12603

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $2,189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Glen Ct Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.0	1782	$4,500	$2.53	44d	1	0.83mi
34 Rombout Rd Poughkeepsie, NY	3.0	2.5	2707	$4,000	$1.48	23d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-10-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-12
   listed $100,000 Active
3. 2008-10-31
   historical
4. 2008-02-11
   listed
5. 2005-08-05
   soldstatus $400,000
6. 2005-05-31
   historical
7. 2004-11-30
   listed
8. 2001-03-06
   soldstatus $218,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,500
• − Management: −$3,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $26,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,298
• After-tax cash flow: $19,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Freedom Plains

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,304
• Household income: $103,538
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.61%
• Current HPI: 252.7003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-54.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Listed $100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2008-02-11 Listed — HGMLS
• 2005-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2004-11-30 Listed — HGMLS
• 2001-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,137 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.