Is 18514 Athena Flower Dr in Fresno, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.4% cap rate and $-967/mo modeled cash flow at a $318,790 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 18514 Athena Flower Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,315/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.12

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.7/30.0
Appreciation +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
1% rule +1.9/10.0
Schools +1.8/10.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0

$318,790

18514 Athena Flower Dr · Fresno, TX 77545

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,117 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18514 Athena Flower Drive located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ plan.

Key facts

New construction
2 garage spots
Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-967 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (38.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (27.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $195k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,084 (38.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.69% ✗
Cap rate: 4.36%
Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $335,057
List price: $318,790
Delta: -5.69%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18550 Athena Flower Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,117 (0%)	2mo	$308,990	$146	95
18518 Athena Flower Dr	0.01mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,214 (+5%)	1mo	$388,155	$175	82
18538 Athena Flower Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,911 (-10%)	1mo	$305,990	$160	81
18542 Athena Flower Dr	0.05mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,214 (+5%)	2mo	$347,990	$157	79
18622 Serapis St	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,876 (-11%)	5mo	$381,920	$204	64
18539 Porta Marina Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,876 (-11%)	8mo	$337,740	$180	64
18435 Porta Marina Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,876 (-11%)	9mo	$342,350	$182	63
2419 Alcove Foster Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,964 (-7%)	2mo	$235,000	$120	56
1927 Vermillion View St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,215 (+5%)	4mo	$277,500	$125	53
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,340 (+10%)	4mo	$332,500	$142	53
2322 Alcove Foster Ct	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,347 (+11%)	2mo	$285,000	$121	48
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,392 (+13%)	4mo	$295,000	$123	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.9%
Equity multiple: -0.15×
Total profit: $-107,868
Equity at exit: $65,372

10-year hold

IRR: -36.1%
Equity multiple: -0.97×
Total profit: $-185,203
Equity at exit: $56,151

Cash invested: $93,816 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 30 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $329,950 ($144/sqft)
Median days on market: 68 d
This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.9%
Active inventory: 268
Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,315 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,026/yr
Insurance: −$140
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$54
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
Net cashflow: $-967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,539

Max offer price $195,084

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-736	-5% $-852	+0% $-967	+5% $-1,083	+10% $-1,199
Rent	-10% $-1,150	-5% $-1,059	+0% $-967	+5% $-876	+10% $-784
Rate	-1.0pp $-799	-0.5pp $-882	base $-967	+0.5pp $-1,054	+1.0pp $-1,142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $83,764
Closing costs: $10,052
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	48d	1	0.61mi
2026 Acorn Glen Trl Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2294	$2,280	$0.99	29d	1	0.67mi
2202 Tannin Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,231	$1.01	34d	1	0.85mi
1926 Lansing Cove Dr Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	2153	$2,098	$0.97	59d	1	1.13mi
3122 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,711	$1.07	74d	1	1.14mi
3234 Dartmouth Field Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1718	$1,700	$0.99	24d	1	1.18mi
3327 Jib Ct Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,040	$1.15	35d	1	1.30mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	101d	1	1.37mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	115d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
HOA & community: Association managed by Principal MgmtAnnual association fee of $650Community features include park, curbs and gutters

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Full ownershipBuilt in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2026
Exterior features: Covered patioDeckPatioPrivate yard with backyard fencingSprinkler / irrigation systemSubdivision lot settingConcrete road

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOvenKitchen islandGranite countertopsPantryENERGY STAR appliances
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 13 x 14)Second-floor bedroom (approx. 11 x 12)Second-floor bedroom (approx. 11 x 11)
Flooring: CarpetTile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Gas log fireplaceDouble vanity in bathsGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen open to family roomPantrySelf-closing drawersSoaking tub and separate showerTub-shower combinationWindow treatments / coveringsCeiling fansLow emissivity windowsENERGY STAR qualified appliancesInstant hot waterTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupInstant hot waterTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $318,790 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-23

pricedays on market $318,790 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $315,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $315,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $315,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $315,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $315,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $315,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $315,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $315,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $315,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $315,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $315,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $315,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $351,735 Active 68 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $351,735 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $351,735 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $351,735 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $351,735 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $351,735 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $351,735 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $351,735 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $351,735 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $351,735 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $351,735 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $351,735 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $351,735 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $351,735 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $351,735 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $351,735 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $351,735 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $351,735 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $351,735 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $351,735 Active 45 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $351,735 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $351,735 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $351,735 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $351,735 Active 41 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $351,735 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $351,735 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $351,735 Active 37 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $351,735 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $351,735 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $351,735 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $351,735 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $351,735 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $351,735 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $351,735 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $351,735 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $351,735 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,778
− Mortgage interest: −$18,768
− Property taxes: −$5,026
− Insurance: −$6,794
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
− Management: −$2,222
− HOA: −$648
− Depreciation: −$9,747
Taxable loss: −$17,650

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,236
After-tax cash flow: $-7,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or tenants, with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Upgrading appliances in the kitchen — Modern appliances can improve the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridgemont Early Literacy Center Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Willowridge H S F TX #1,389/1,632 Nat'l #13,991/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

Score: 62/100
State rank: #943
US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Fresno, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
City population: 26,236
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 26,236
Household income: $94,474
Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
Current HPI: 231.3921
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-07-01 Price Changed $351,735 HARMLS
2026-06-29 Listed $349,735 HARMLS
2026-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-04 Price Changed $347,735 HARMLS
2026-04-30 Listed $345,735 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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