36801 N Long Rifle Rd · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,495,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1979 0.91 ac lot $501/sqft · 13% above area Est $1827k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Carefree property with no HOA, offering 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths and a remodeled detached casita. The home features wood-look tile flooring, beamed ceilings, a fireplace, and an updated kitchen with white shaker cabinets, roll-outs, refrigerated drawers, double ovens, a pot filler, and a large 9x12 walk-in pantry. Enjoy a full-length covered patio with an outdoor fireplace, BBQ area, and heated pool. The property includes an RV garage with electric hookup and 7 total garage spaces. Recent updates include a new roof, newer HVAC components, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated septic equipment, new gutters, and upgraded patio flooring. Additional highlights include a private office, fenced yard areas, and a separate observatory.

Key facts

• Outdoor fireplace
• Bbq area
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED DETACHED CASITA
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• FULL-LENGTH COVERED PATIO
• OUTDOOR FIREPLACE
• BBQ AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.14M (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.00M (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.00M (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $102k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $92k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$163k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $180k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,001,196 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,827,212
• List price: $1,495,000
• Delta: -18.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37178 N Winding Wash Trl	0.31mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,942 (-1%)	16mo	$1,700,000	$578	63
37095 N Bloody Basin Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,046 (+2%)	6mo	$1,540,000	$506	61
37646 N Dream St	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,972 (-0%)	10mo	$1,385,000	$466	54
37002 N Long Rifle Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,653 (-11%)	20mo	$1,225,000	$462	50
8102 E Serene St	0.63mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,291 (+10%)	7mo	$1,258,000	$382	41
37146 N Granite Creek Ln	0.36mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,394 (+14%)	14mo	$2,000,000	$589	38
37636 N Round Robin Ct	0.53mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,383 (+13%)	7mo	$1,340,000	$396	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $289,188
• Equity at exit: $952,228

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $968,684
• Equity at exit: $1,737,631

Cash invested: $418,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,840
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,869 /mo · $22,425/yr
• Insurance: −$623
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,103
• Net cashflow: $-2,422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,078

Max offer price $1,144,511

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,389	-5% $-1,906	+0% $-2,422	+5% $-2,939	+10% $-3,455
Rent	-10% $-3,213	-5% $-2,818	+0% $-2,422	+5% $-2,027	+10% $-1,631
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,669	-0.5pp $-2,042	base $-2,422	+0.5pp $-2,810	+1.0pp $-3,204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $373,750
• Closing costs: $44,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	44d	1	0.77mi
8193 E Sand Flower Dr Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.5	3760	$10,000	$2.66	44d	1	1.44mi
6945 E Stevens Rd Cave Creek, AZ	4.0	4.0	3583	$12,000	$3.35	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Beautiful Carefree property with no HOA, offering 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths and a remodeled detached casita. The home features wood-look tile flooring, beamed ceilings, a fireplace, and an updated kitchen with white shaker cabinets, roll-outs, refrigerated drawers, double ovens, a pot filler, and a large 9x12 walk-in pantry. Enjoy a full-length covered patio with an outdoor fireplace, BBQ area, and heated pool. The property includes an RV garage with electric hookup and 7 total garage spaces. Recent updates include a new roof, newer HVAC components, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated septic equipment, new gutters, and upgraded patio flooring. Additional highlights include a private office, fenced yard areas, and a separate observatory.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $1,495,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Beautiful Carefree property with no HOA, offering 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths and a remodeled detached casita. The home features wood-look tile flooring, beamed ceilings, a fireplace, and an updated kitchen with white shaker cabinets, roll-outs, refrigerated drawers, double ovens, a pot filler, and a large 9x12 walk-in pantry. Enjoy a full-length covered patio with an outdoor fireplace, BBQ area, and heated pool. The property includes an RV garage with electric hookup and 7 total garage spaces. Recent updates include a new roof, newer HVAC components, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated septic equipment, new gutters, and upgraded patio flooring. Additional highlights include a private office, fenced yard areas, and a separate observatory.

3. 2026-03-16
   price $1,595,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Beautiful Carefree property with no HOA, offering 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths and a remodeled detached casita. The home features wood-look tile flooring, beamed ceilings, a fireplace, and an updated kitchen with white shaker cabinets, roll-outs, refrigerated drawers, double ovens, a pot filler, and a large 9x12 walk-in pantry. Enjoy a full-length covered patio with an outdoor fireplace, BBQ area, and heated pool. The property includes an RV garage with electric hookup and 7 total garage spaces. Recent updates include a new roof, newer HVAC components, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated septic equipment, new gutters, and upgraded patio flooring. Additional highlights include a private office, fenced yard areas, and a separate observatory.

4. 2026-02-25
   price $1,625,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Beautiful Carefree property with no HOA, offering 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths and a remodeled detached casita. The home features wood-look tile flooring, beamed ceilings, a fireplace, and an updated kitchen with white shaker cabinets, roll-outs, refrigerated drawers, double ovens, a pot filler, and a large 9x12 walk-in pantry. Enjoy a full-length covered patio with an outdoor fireplace, BBQ area, and heated pool. The property includes an RV garage with electric hookup and 7 total garage spaces. Recent updates include a new roof, newer HVAC components, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated septic equipment, new gutters, and upgraded patio flooring. Additional highlights include a private office, fenced yard areas, and a separate observatory.

5. 2025-12-04
   listed $1,675,000 Active 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Beautiful Carefree property with no HOA, offering 5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths and a remodeled detached casita. The home features wood-look tile flooring, beamed ceilings, a fireplace, and an updated kitchen with white shaker cabinets, roll-outs, refrigerated drawers, double ovens, a pot filler, and a large 9x12 walk-in pantry. Enjoy a full-length covered patio with an outdoor fireplace, BBQ area, and heated pool. The property includes an RV garage with electric hookup and 7 total garage spaces. Recent updates include a new roof, newer HVAC components, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated septic equipment, new gutters, and upgraded patio flooring. Additional highlights include a private office, fenced yard areas, and a separate observatory.

6. 2025-10-10
   historical
7. 2025-07-13
   price $1,675,000
8. 2025-06-25
   price $1,690,000
9. 2025-06-02
   listed $1,700,000 Active
10. 2025-06-02
    historical
11. 2025-05-04
    price $1,750,000
12. 2025-04-24
    price $1,785,000
13. 2025-04-16
    price $1,790,000
14. 2025-02-21
    listed $1,795,500 Active
15. 2021-12-10
    soldstatus $1,375,000 Closed
16. 2021-12-09
    soldstatus $1,375,000
17. 2021-10-22
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
18. 2021-10-15
    price $1,375,000
19. 2021-09-18
    price $1,500,000
20. 2021-08-27
    listed $1,700,000 Active
21. 2017-12-15
    soldstatus $537,563 Closed
22. 2017-12-15
    soldstatus $537,563
23. 2017-11-08
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
24. 2017-10-20
    price $549,000
25. 2017-10-10
    listed $595,000 Active
26. 1996-05-15
    soldstatus $255,000
27. 1993-02-16
    soldstatus $207,000
28. 1986-12-11
    soldstatus $193,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $120,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$83,743
• − Property taxes: −$22,425
• − Insurance: −$7,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,611
• − Management: −$9,611
• − Depreciation: −$43,491
• Taxable loss: −$56,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,491
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+674.6% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $1,495,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $1,595,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $1,625,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $1,675,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $1,675,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $1,690,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $1,700,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-04 Price Changed $1,750,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $1,785,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $1,790,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $1,795,500 ARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Sold (MLS) $1,375,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $1,375,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-22 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $1,375,000 ARMLS
• 2021-09-18 Price Changed $1,500,000 ARMLS
• 2021-08-27 Listed $1,700,000 ARMLS
• 2017-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $537,563 Public Records
• 2017-12-15 Sold (MLS) $537,563 ARMLS
• 2017-11-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-10-20 Price Changed $549,000 ARMLS
• 2017-10-10 Listed $595,000 ARMLS
• 1996-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 1986-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $193,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,064 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.