Mahogany Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 1,850 Sq. Ft. The Mahogany offers easy elegance and modern functionality in a single-story design that feels open, welcoming, and perfectly proportioned. Offering a relaxed yet refined layout this home provides the right amount of space for families, guests, or those looking to right-size without compromise. Entering the home, a bright foyer leads directly to the home's central living area. The great room, located at the back of the house, serves as the heart of the home-connecting effortlessly to the dining area and kitchen.

Key facts

• Luxe soaking tub
• Spa style bath
• Dual vanities

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA STYLE BATH
• DUAL VANITIES
• LUXE SOAKING TUB
• WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,365 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.60%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,990
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: 0.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-5%)	4mo	$343,430	$196	87
312 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,861 (+1%)	1mo	$289,990	$156	86
321 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,861 (+1%)	3mo	$361,762	$194	85
316 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-12%)	0mo	$269,990	$166	77
308 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-16%)	2mo	$269,990	$175	71
404 Hickory Hills Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-17%)	2mo	$254,990	$166	65
340 Magnolia View Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,168 (+17%)	1mo	$329,990	$152	62
305 Redbud Ridge DR	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-20%)	17mo	$192,500	$129	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-89,638
• Equity at exit: $45,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-144,738
• Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $286,490 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $226,759

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-330	-5% $-435	+0% $-541	+5% $-646	+10% $-751
Rent	-10% $-697	-5% $-619	+0% $-541	+5% $-462	+10% $-384
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-463	base $-541	+0.5pp $-620	+1.0pp $-700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction, Plan)Address: Pattison, TX 77423
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,850 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Mahogany (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $299,990 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $299,990 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $305,990 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $305,990 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $305,990 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $305,990 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $305,990 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $305,990 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $305,990 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $305,990 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $305,990 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $305,990 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $305,990 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $305,990 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $305,990 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $305,990 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $305,990 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $305,990 Active 104 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $305,990 Active 102 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $305,990 Active 101 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $305,990 Active 100 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $305,990 Active 99 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $305,990 Active 98 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $305,990 Active 97 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $305,990 Active 96 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $305,990 Active 95 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $305,990 Active 94 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $305,990 Active 93 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $305,990 Active 92 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $305,990 Active 91 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $305,990 Active 90 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $305,990 Active 89 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $305,990 Active 88 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $305,990 Active 87 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $305,990 Active 86 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $305,990 Active 85 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $305,990 Active 84 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $305,990 Active 83 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $305,990 Active 82 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $305,990 Active 81 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $305,990 Active 79 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $305,990 Active 78 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $305,990 Active 77 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $305,990 Active 76 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $305,990 Active 73 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $305,990 Active 71 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $305,990 Active 70 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $305,990 Active 68 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $305,990 Active 66 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $305,990 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,904
• − Management: −$1,904
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$12,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,895
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Mahogany Plan, Pattison TX, is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs for renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction, Plan)Address: Pattison, TX 77423
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,850 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Mahogany (new construction plan)