101 Buxton Loop · Piney, AR 71913

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $105k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide mobile home situated on 1.75 acres. Completely remodeled in 2024, this home offers modern updates throughout. The property features a spacious enclosed carport on the side, as well as a separate storage shed located at the rear. The backyard is fully fenced, providing added privacy, and includes a small pond for a peaceful outdoor setting. Positioned on a double lot, the property offers excellent potential for an additional mobile home. Located in the highly desirable Lake Hamilton School District, this home also boasts a prime location & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; less than 3 miles from the nearest grocery store and just a short drive to Lake

Key facts

• Small pond
• Double lot
• Prime location

Tags

• SPACIOUS ENCLOSED CARPORT
• SEPARATE STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• SMALL POND
• DOUBLE LOT
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 1.9% in Piney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#218 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.35%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,576
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Buxton Loop	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	7mo	$105,000	$86	87
345 Blakehill Loop	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,248 (+3%)	6mo	$45,000	$36	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $16,936
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $78,534
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 McCurry Ter Apt A Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.5	1375	$1,495	$1.09	14d	1	1.00mi
112 McCurry Ter Unit B Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.5	1375	$1,995	$1.45	14d	1	1.03mi
127a New Leaf Ln Hot Springs, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1150	$1,400	$1.22	23d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $120,000 Active 735-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 39.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$982
• After-tax cash flow: $4,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Hamilton School District
• NCES district ID: 0508610
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4834
• State rank: #54 of 238 in AR

Livability — Piney

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #16742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piney, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.