14633 Forest Tower Ct · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition 0.27 ac lot $139/sqft · 15% below area Est $195k · 15% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 14633 Forest Tower Court in the Forest Trace Court community of Conroe. This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,855 sq ft with an open, easy-flow layout designed for everyday living. Built in 2017, the home features spacious living areas, well-sized bedrooms, and sits on a 0.27-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Located on a cul-de-sac with convenient access to TX-105 and I-45, this home offers comfort, space, and a location that makes daily life simple.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.85%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,163
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -15.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,990
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,738
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $310	+0% $264	+5% $217	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $199	+0% $264	+5% $328	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $306	base $264	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $165,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to 14633 Forest Tower Court in the Forest Trace Court community of Conroe. This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,855 sq ft with an open, easy-flow layout designed for everyday living. Built in 2017, the home features spacious living areas, well-sized bedrooms, and sits on a 0.27-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Located on a cul-de-sac with convenient access to TX-105 and I-45, this home offers comfort, space, and a location that makes daily life simple.

16. 2026-03-12
    listed $179,000 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to 14633 Forest Tower Court in the Forest Trace Court community of Conroe. This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,855 sq ft with an open, easy-flow layout designed for everyday living. Built in 2017, the home features spacious living areas, well-sized bedrooms, and sits on a 0.27-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Located on a cul-de-sac with convenient access to TX-105 and I-45, this home offers comfort, space, and a location that makes daily life simple.

17. 2026-03-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Welcome to 14633 Forest Tower Court in the Forest Trace Court community of Conroe. This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,855 sq ft with an open, easy-flow layout designed for everyday living. Built in 2017, the home features spacious living areas, well-sized bedrooms, and sits on a 0.27-acre lot with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Located on a cul-de-sac with convenient access to TX-105 and I-45, this home offers comfort, space, and a location that makes daily life simple.

18. 2026-01-29
    price $184,000
19. 2025-12-24
    listed $194,000 Active
20. 2025-12-14
    historical
21. 2025-10-08
    price $194,000
22. 2024-12-13
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,273/yr (+$189/mo · 304.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $3,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story manufactured home in Conroe, Texas, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,855 sq ft with an open, easy-flow layout. The home is located on a 0.27-acre lot with convenient access to TX-105 and I-45. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $184,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listed $194,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $194,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $199,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.