14633 Forest Tower Ct · Conroe, TX 77306

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2017 Good condition 0.27 ac lot $118/sqft · 28% below area Est $195k · 28% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

Listing remarks

Exceptional value, spacious, and move-in ready! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Forest Trace, this well-maintained home features the open-concept layout buyers love, a generous 0.27-acre lot, and both a large covered front porch and covered back porch for year-round outdoor living. Whether you're entertaining, gardening, or simply enjoying the extra outdoor space, you'll appreciate all this property has to offer. Conveniently located just minutes from TX-105, I-45, shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, this is an opportunity you won't want to miss! * * Showings will begin Saturday August 8th.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 0.27-acre lot
• Outdoor space

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• 0.27-ACRE LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.5% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 674 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,766 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,205
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -28.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2510 Ruffed Grouse Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+8%)	3mo	$187,000	$147	64
14692 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+8%)	3mo	$186,440	$146	64
14704 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+8%)	4mo	$223,990	$176	62
14652 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+19%)	1mo	$175,991	$125	55
14680 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+20%)	2mo	$189,990	$134	52
14688 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+20%)	3mo	$230,990	$163	51
14700 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+20%)	4mo	$233,990	$165	50
2627 Rain Quail Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+19%)	4mo	$233,990	$166	49
14716 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+20%)	5mo	$230,990	$163	48
14720 South Ascot Bend Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+19%)	5mo	$233,990	$166	47
3564 Korina Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+14%)	6mo	$215,000	$160	38
14148 Kamilia Rd	1.00mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+20%)	5mo	$256,000	$180	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,773
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-603
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $499,999 ($434/sqft)
• Median days on market: 37 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -62.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$30
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $180	+0% $140	+5% $101	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $89	+0% $140	+5% $192	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $176	base $140	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3602 Karissa Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	11d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $140,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $140,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $140,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $140,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    pricedays on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    statusdays on market $150,000 Active 1 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $150,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $150,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $150,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $150,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    remarks 620-char remark
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $150,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    remarks 566-char remark
47. 2026-07-30
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $150,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM
48. 2026-06-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-06-29
    days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
50. 2026-06-28
    days on market $165,000 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,816/yr (+$151/mo · 243.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$154
• After-tax cash flow: $1,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,920–$17,760 screening

This single-story manufactured home in Conroe, Texas, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,855 sq ft with an open, easy-flow layout. The home is located on a 0.27-acre lot with convenient access to TX-105 and I-45. The home is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Austin El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Grangerland Int F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Caney Creek H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-29 Coming Soon $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $184,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listed $194,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $194,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $199,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.