1964-109 River Rd · Calverton, NY 11933

$109,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 191 Days on market

Built 2014 Fair condition $139/sqft · 35% above area Est $81k · 35% over $1150/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Lakewood a 55 and over Manufactored Home Community located near the Long Island Expressway, and minutes away from medical facilities, shopping, wineries, golf, The Long Island Sound and Peconic Bay. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, living room, kitchen, laundry area, cement patio, and parking for 2 vehicles. The home was constructed in 2014. The home is 14' x 56' = 784 sq ft. Land rent is $1150/month and includes water, taxes, sewer and road maintenance, and garbage removal. Purchaser must be approved by Management.

Key facts

• Wineries
• Long island sound
• Golf

Tags

• CEMENT PATIO
• MEDICAL FACILITIES
• SHOPPING
• WINERIES
• GOLF
• LONG ISLAND SOUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $109k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $712 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.18%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,000
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: 34.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1964 River Rd #55	0.07mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	6mo	$97,000	$126	87
1964 River Rd #35	0.06mi	2/1.0	850 (+8%)	2mo	$70,000	$82	79
1964-93 River Rd #93	0.07mi	2/1.0	820 (+5%)	14mo	$75,000	$91	75
1964 River Rd #106	0.06mi	2/1.0	900 (+15%)	1mo	$92,000	$102	70
61-35 Forge Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0	720 (-8%)	21mo	$130,000	$181	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $60,782
• Equity at exit: $50,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $152,074
• Equity at exit: $79,268

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$1,150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,480

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $787	-5% $750	+0% $712	+5% $674	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $445	-5% $579	+0% $712	+5% $846	+10% $979
Rate	-1.0pp $767	-0.5pp $740	base $712	+0.5pp $684	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,150 · $13,800/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $109,000 Pending 191 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2025-11-22
   listed $109,000 Active 541-char remark

   Show marketing remark (541 chars)

   Welcome to Lakewood a 55 and over Manufactored Home Community located near the Long Island Expressway, and minutes away from medical facilities, shopping, wineries, golf, The Long Island Sound and Peconic Bay. This home features 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, living room, kitchen, laundry area, cement patio, and parking for 2 vehicles. The home was constructed in 2014. The home is 14' x 56' = 784 sq ft. Land rent is $1150/month and includes water, taxes, sewer and road maintenance, and garbage removal. Purchaser must be approved by Management.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$1,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,246
• − Management: −$3,246
• − HOA: −$13,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $8,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,958
• After-tax cash flow: $6,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping, but is otherwise in fair condition. Painting the exterior and improving the landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate siding — Weathered and discolored
• Minor landscaping — Overgrown grass

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
landscaping · Overgrown grass	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Listed $109,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid