7802 Persimmon Trl · Austin, TX 78745

$269,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Manufactured public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1968 0.27 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity to build your dream home on a 0.2703-acre lot! The current structure on the property is considered a tear down, offering a clean slate for new construction. Whether you’re an investor or planning your custom residence, this spacious lot provides endless potential in a desirable location. Bring your vision and make it a reality!

Key facts

• 0.2703-acre lot
• New construction
• Desirable location

Tags

• 0.2703-ACRE LOT
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SPACIOUS LOT
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 450 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-44,664
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-58,438
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78745

• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 450
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,579/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,311

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
718 Ann Taylor Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	2120	$2,850	$1.34	43d	1	0.14mi
656 Mairo St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	0.49mi
748 Wales Way Unit 748 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,895	$2.14	23d	1	0.49mi
7601 Cooper Ln #4 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1949	$3,150	$1.62	23d	1	0.53mi
7601 Cooper Ln #4 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1949	$3,150	$1.62	4d	1	0.53mi
7731 Menchaca Rd Austin, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,432	$2.66	2d	37	0.59mi
7102 Moat Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	23d	1	0.65mi
8353 Steamline Cir Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2526	$3,350	$1.33	4d	1	0.67mi
7208 Teaberry Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$3,200	$2.12	23d	1	0.69mi
914 Hillside Oaks Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$2,500	$2.04	21d	1	0.70mi
7310 Dan-Jean Dr Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	3.5	1396	$2,195	$1.57	1d	1	0.75mi
7310 Dan-Jean Dr Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	3.5	1396	$2,250	$1.61	1d	1	0.75mi
7825 Beauregard Cir Unit 1B Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	2186	$1,595	$0.73	14d	1	0.76mi
8004 Dowling Cv Unit B Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1920	$1,750	$0.91	4d	1	0.80mi
705 Huntingdon Pl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,295	$1.57	23d	1	0.80mi
7200 Dan Jean Dr Austin, TX	3.0	4.0	1640	$2,600	$1.59	43d	1	0.80mi
8104 Hood Cir Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	2100	$1,600	$0.76	4d	1	0.84mi
7111 Dan-Jean Dr Unit A Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1776	$1,295	$0.73	23d	1	0.84mi
8108 Hood Cir Unit B Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	2014	$1,500	$0.74	16d	1	0.85mi
8800 S 1st St Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$2,031	$2.10	4d	9	0.86mi
1211 Gingerlily Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1411	$2,200	$1.56	43d	1	0.93mi
2114 Lear Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,500	$1.51	43d	1	0.97mi
305 Kimberly Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,195	$1.65	23d	1	0.97mi
803 Sand Hill Branch Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2606	$2,965	$1.14	23d	1	0.97mi
1217 Armadillo Rd Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,995	$1.48	23d	1	0.99mi
744 W William Cannon Dr Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,799	$2.01	1d	33	1.00mi
146 Thelonious Dr Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	23d	1	1.01mi
1204 Spearson Ln Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	1618	$3,200	$1.98	2d	1	1.05mi
1204 Spearson Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$3,200	$1.98	4d	1	1.05mi
707 W Slaughter Ln Austin, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,154	$2.15	1d	322	1.06mi
323 W William Cannon Dr Unit B Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1905	$1,495	$0.78	2d	1	1.08mi
323 W William Cannon Dr Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	1.5	1905	$1,595	$0.84	43d	1	1.08mi
7105 Lilac Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$3,000	$2.10	43d	1	1.08mi
811 W Slaughter Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,939	$1.97	1d	26	1.10mi
8900 Jodie Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2586	$3,200	$1.24	43d	1	1.10mi
420 W Slaughter Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,059	$2.01	43d	42	1.10mi
420 W Slaughter Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,989	$1.94	1d	28	1.10mi
6903 Skynook Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,150	$1.62	4d	1	1.10mi
6504 Libyan Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$3,000	$1.88	4d	1	1.12mi
426 W Slaughter Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,173	$1.60	43d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $269,900 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $269,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to build your dream home on a 0.2703-acre lot! The current structure on the property is considered a tear down, offering a clean slate for new construction. Whether you’re an investor or planning your custom residence, this spacious lot provides endless potential in a desirable location. Bring your vision and make it a reality!

15. 2026-04-30
    price $269,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to build your dream home on a 0.2703-acre lot! The current structure on the property is considered a tear down, offering a clean slate for new construction. Whether you’re an investor or planning your custom residence, this spacious lot provides endless potential in a desirable location. Bring your vision and make it a reality!

16. 2026-04-14
    price $274,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to build your dream home on a 0.2703-acre lot! The current structure on the property is considered a tear down, offering a clean slate for new construction. Whether you’re an investor or planning your custom residence, this spacious lot provides endless potential in a desirable location. Bring your vision and make it a reality!

17. 2025-12-04
    listed $279,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to build your dream home on a 0.2703-acre lot! The current structure on the property is considered a tear down, offering a clean slate for new construction. Whether you’re an investor or planning your custom residence, this spacious lot provides endless potential in a desirable location. Bring your vision and make it a reality!

18. 2025-12-04
    listed $279,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to build your dream home on a 0.2703-acre lot! The current structure on the property is considered a tear down, offering a clean slate for new construction. Whether you’re an investor or planning your custom residence, this spacious lot provides endless potential in a desirable location. Bring your vision and make it a reality!

19. 1990-10-18
    soldstatus
20. 1985-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,579 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,939 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,361/yr (+$113/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$3,579
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$3,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$806
• After-tax cash flow: $1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 61,219
• Household income: $86,109
• Rent vs Own: 53.7% rent · 46.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3006.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -596.81%
• Current HPI: 278.8433
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.17%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $274,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $279,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $279,900 CTXMLS
• 1990-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,579 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.