212 Lakeshore Dr · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18438

$389,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1951 2.67 ac lot $230/sqft · 6% below area Est $378k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Ranch style home, no community or HOA, on 2.67 acres, 1/2 mile from Lake Wallenpaupack! This home has been remodeled and lovingly cared for over the years. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, open floor plan, huge living room, large 4 season room, great kitchen with granite, primary bedroom with primary bath and fireplace, hardwood floors, full unfinished basement, force hot air heating plus a wood stove in basement, full unfinished basement, 1 car garage plus garage door enclosed workshop/storage space, 2 sheds, paved circular driveway, front and back decking, front and back yard, back yard fish pond water feature. and whole house generator! A great property for your whole fam

Key facts

• 2.67 acres
• Remodeled
• Open floor plan

Tags

• 2.67 ACRES
• REMODELED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE 4 SEASON ROOM
• GREAT KITCHEN WITH GRANITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Paved parking; Garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built with typical residential construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Outbuilding / shed(s); Sloped, wooded backyard with cleared, gently sloping areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air; Wood stove
• Interior features: Granite counters; Open floor plan; Unfinished walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $389k).
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.4% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $389k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $389,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,916
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: 2.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Birch Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,692 (0%)	20mo	$548,000	$324	73
103 Hemlock Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,666 (-2%)	19mo	$255,000	$153	71
128 Terrace Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-5%)	12mo	$385,100	$241	64
106 Hemlock Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,447 (-14%)	9mo	$309,000	$214	55
15 Birch Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-13%)	21mo	$344,225	$234	50
524 Hemlock Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,601 (-5%)	24mo	$330,000	$206	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $165,184
• Equity at exit: $198,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $426,884
• Equity at exit: $325,098

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18438

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,802/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,083

Max offer price $389,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
46 Summit Cir Lakeville, PA	3.0	2.0	1152	$5,000	$4.34	13d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $389,000 Active 978-char remark
2. 2009-02-06
   soldstatus $180,000
3. 1987-10-13
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,802 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,474 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,672/yr (+$139/mo · 59.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$2,802
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable income: $12,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,011
• After-tax cash flow: $15,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,474

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: American 3% Polish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Current HPI: 325.6643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+386.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $389,000 PWMLS
• 2009-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1987-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,802 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.