Brahman Plan · Austin, TX 78652

$394,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,391 sqft · SingleFamily · 521 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Brahman plan, offering a generous 2,391-2,441 square feet of luxurious living space. This brand-new construction is a masterpiece of modern design, seamlessly blending style and functionality to create the perfect home for you and your family. Every inch of this floorplan has been thoughtfully crafted to provide both comfort and elegance, making it a truly inviting space where cherished memories are waiting to be made.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 520 days

🏗️ New construction. The $394,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $437,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-823 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 521 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,587 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 521 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,490
• List price: $394,990
• Delta: -9.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13205 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,434 (+2%)	2mo	$429,990	$177	87
13108 Geary Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,441 (+2%)	5mo	$424,990	$174	87
13201 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,441 (+2%)	5mo	$449,990	$184	86
13115 Geary Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,251 (-6%)	5mo	$419,990	$187	79
13116 Geary Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,251 (-6%)	5mo	$424,990	$189	78
13214 Stabler Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (-7%)	0mo	$419,990	$188	76
13111 Geary Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (-7%)	5mo	$415,990	$186	75
13207 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (-7%)	3mo	$416,990	$187	75
13106 Geary Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (-7%)	5mo	$410,990	$184	75
12617 Iron Bridge Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,320 (-3%)	5mo	$465,000	$200	56
205 Tangled Brush Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,110 (-12%)	4mo	$449,000	$213	47
13205 Onion Creek Dr	0.72mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (-12%)	1mo	$650,000	$308	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-123,239
• Equity at exit: $65,231

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-174,603
• Equity at exit: $37,826

Cash invested: $122,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.6 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,990 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78652

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,562/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,827

Max offer price $318,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-520	-5% $-671	+0% $-823	+5% $-974	+10% $-1,125
Rent	-10% $-1,043	-5% $-933	+0% $-823	+5% $-713	+10% $-602
Rate	-1.0pp $-602	-0.5pp $-711	base $-823	+0.5pp $-936	+1.0pp $-1,051

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,372
• Closing costs: $13,125
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	28d	1	0.13mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	10d	1	0.13mi
806 Dayton Dr Unit 110 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,395	$1.28	18d	1	0.21mi
12901 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2429	$2,649	$1.09	40d	1	0.21mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,450	$1.41	64d	1	0.28mi
13207 Easley Dr Unit 1039127P Manchaca, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$7,254	$4.04	26d	1	0.61mi
12407 Altamira St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2501	$2,895	$1.16	16d	1	0.69mi
12613 Twisted Root Dr Unit 1 Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	3211	$2,800	$0.87	12d	1	0.72mi
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,490	$1.35	93d	1	0.84mi
607 Allende Bnd Austin, TX	5.0	3.5	3327	$3,695	$1.11	9d	1	0.89mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	39d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,900	$1.22	73d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	53d	1	1.02mi
12213 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	2739	$3,100	$1.13	12d	1	1.02mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1294	$2,422	$1.87	10d	43	1.07mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $394,990 Active 521 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $394,990 Active 519 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $394,990 Active 518 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $394,990 Active 517 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $394,990 Active 516 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $394,990 Active 513 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $394,990 Active 511 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $394,990 Active 510 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $394,990 Active 508 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $394,990 Active 506 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $394,990 Active 505 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $394,990 Active 504 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $394,990 Active 503 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $394,990 Active 502 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 500 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $394,990 Active 499 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $394,990 Active 498 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $394,990 Active 497 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $392,990 Active 496 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $392,990 Active 495 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $392,990 Active 494 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $392,990 Active 493 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $392,990 Active 492 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $392,990 Active 491 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $392,990 Active 489 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $392,990 Active 488 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $392,990 Active 487 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $392,990 Active 485 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $392,990 Active 484 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $392,990 Active 483 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $392,990 Active 482 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $392,990 Active 481 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $392,990 Active 480 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $392,990 Active 478 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $392,990 Active 476 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $392,990 Active 474 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $392,990 Active 473 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $392,990 Active 470 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $392,990 Active 469 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $392,990 Active 468 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $392,990 Active 467 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $392,990 Active 465 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $392,990 Active 461 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $392,990 Active 460 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $392,990 Active 459 DOM
46. 2026-06-05
    days on market $392,990 Active 456 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $392,990 Active 455 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $392,990 Active 454 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $392,990 Active 453 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $392,990 Active 452 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,506
• − Property taxes: −$6,562
• − Insurance: −$2,187
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,674
• − Management: −$2,674
• − Depreciation: −$12,727
• Taxable loss: −$17,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,296
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Brahman plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a luxurious and modern living space with high-end finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Consider landscaping and exterior painting to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,287
• Household income: $133,368
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.32%
• Current HPI: 233.9814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $390,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $388,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $387,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $386,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $476,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $506,990 Zillow