207 Tierce Ln · Piney Green, NC 28555

$100,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 209 Days on market

Built 2000 ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for over 2,050 square with a low payment? Do you need 4 bedrooms and extra room with a living room and family room? This home has a large kitchen with large center island with bar. All new flooring and 3 full baths. Not far from base.

Key facts

• Built 2000
• Listed 209 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.6% in Piney Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#524 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.52%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $21,715
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $67,726
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28555

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $818

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    soldstatus $97,000
18. 2025-11-18
    listed $100,000 Active
19. 2019-03-14
    soldstatus $95,000 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Are you looking for over 2,050 square with a low payment? Do you need 4 bedrooms and extra room with a living room and family room? This home has a large kitchen with large center island with bar. All new flooring and 3 full baths. Not far from base.

20. 2019-03-14
    soldstatus $95,000

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Are you looking for over 2,050 square with a low payment? Do you need 4 bedrooms and extra room with a living room and family room? This home has a large kitchen with large center island with bar. All new flooring and 3 full baths. Not far from base.

21. 2018-08-31
    listed $95,000 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Are you looking for over 2,050 square with a low payment? Do you need 4 bedrooms and extra room with a living room and family room? This home has a large kitchen with large center island with bar. All new flooring and 3 full baths. Not far from base.

22. 2018-06-13
    soldstatus $50,000 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedrooms, 3 bathroom home on large lot. Home is owned by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs and is being sold as is.

23. 2018-05-08
    listed $51,000 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedrooms, 3 bathroom home on large lot. Home is owned by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs and is being sold as is.

24. 2016-08-31
    historical
25. 2016-02-22
    listed $124,500
26. 2010-02-26
    soldstatus $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,409
• After-tax cash flow: $5,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Piney Green

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #19401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,893

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 20% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.86%
• Current HPI: 221.5107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-24.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-18 Listed $100,000 Fizber.com
• 2019-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-14 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-08-31 Listed $95,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-06-13 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-05-08 Listed $51,000 Hive MLS
• 2016-08-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2016-02-22 Listed $124,500 Hive MLS
• 2010-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $963 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.