7521 Darby Rd · Millersville, TN 37072

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedrooms 2 bath home that needs TLC. Home being sold as is!

Key facts

• 1.06 acre lot
• Built 1997

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1.06 acres

Exterior

• Parking: No covered spaces; No designated parking spaces listed
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Water available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating (other); Cooling (other)
• Interior features: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Washer; Dryer
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 4.1% in Millersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#232 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumner County (suburban): math 44% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #12 of 139 in TN (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harold B. Williams Elementary School (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C, #103 of 952 statewide, top 11%, 694 students, 0% FRL); White House High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #123 of 332 statewide, top 37%, 824 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,748 units permitted in Sumner County in 2024 (124 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumner County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $100k implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.81%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $63,441
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $165,697
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37072

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $766

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,264	-5% $1,236	+0% $1,208	+5% $1,179	+10% $1,151
Rent	-10% $1,026	-5% $1,117	+0% $1,208	+5% $1,298	+10% $1,389
Rate	-1.0pp $1,258	-0.5pp $1,233	base $1,208	+0.5pp $1,182	+1.0pp $1,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2017 Skyline Dr Goodlettsville, TN	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,460	$1.70	2d	1	0.64mi
5068 Snow Owl CT Goodlettsville, TN	4.0	2.5	1658	$2,350	$1.42	12d	1	1.12mi
7660 S Swift Rd Goodlettsville, TN	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,060	$1.49	2d	1	1.13mi
2015 Holloway Ct Goodlettsville, TN	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,995	$1.63	2d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $99,900 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   remarks 61-char remark
3. 2026-06-08
   listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $13,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,277
• After-tax cash flow: $11,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner County
• NCES district ID: 4704020
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,998
• Composite: 36.44/100
• National rank: #4667
• State rank: #12 of 139 in TN

Livability — Millersville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #17096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millersville, TN
• County: Sumner County · 196,654 people
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 32,208
• Household income: $78,123
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1013.0

Population outlook (Sumner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,284 people
• By 2030: 223,902 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 253,892 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 281,199 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 344,866 · +65.6%
• By 2100: 384,369 · +84.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.5% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+42.0 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.17%
• Current HPI: 284.0523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+899.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $480 · +47.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.