153 South Ave · New York, NY 10303

$427,500

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1950 4,350 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This property presents a compelling investment opportunity for investors seeking a project. Features six bedrooms and three bathrooms spread across multiple units. The solid structure offers excellent potential for renovation and value enhancement. Located in a desirable area, this property provides investors with the foundation needed to create a profitable rental income stream or development project. Situated with easy access to Forest Avenue Shopping, residents enjoy proximity to retail conveniences and dining options. The nearby Mariners Harbor Playground provides recreational opportunities, while the Stop & Shop Supermarket ensures convenient grocery shopping just moments away. S

Key facts

• Solid structure
• Prime location
• 4,350 sq ft lot

Tags

• SOLID STRUCTURE
• POTENTIAL FOR RENOVATION
• PROFITABLE RENTAL INCOME
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT GROCERY SHOPPING
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 0.1 acre (30 x 145); Building area reported as 1,672
• Financial info: 2-unit multifamily property

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: 220-volt electric
• Home design: Brick construction; 2 stories; Property condition: Excellent; Zoning: R3X
• Construction: Brick exterior; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: Cable available

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 3 bedrooms (Level 1); Unit 2: 3 bedrooms (Level 2)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (Unit 1); 2 half bathrooms (total reported: 2 half for property); Total bathrooms reported: 4
• Heating & cooling: Steam heat; Oil heat
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $428k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $428k).
• Recommended offer: $415k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,833/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 1198% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($415k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $414,675 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.76%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $869,440
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 South Ave	0.06mi	6/4.0	1,692 (+1%)	4mo	$880,000	$520	88
51 Mersereau Ave	0.15mi	6/2.5	1,800 (+8%)	3mo	$770,000	$428	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $43,577
• Equity at exit: $63,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $183,302
• Equity at exit: $36,962

Cash invested: $119,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10303

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,242
• Tax from tax record: −$416 /mo · $4,998/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,225
• Net cashflow: $1,772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,590

Max offer price $427,500

Occupancy floor 65%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$5,834
Total (2 units)			$5,833

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,875
• Closing costs: $12,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $427,500
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $468,000 Active
4. 2016-02-17
   historical
5. 2016-02-17
   historical
6. 2014-12-03
   historical
7. 2007-02-01
   listed $635,000
8. 2006-06-01
   soldstatus $550,000
9. 2005-09-08
   listed $659,900
10. 2003-08-26
    listed $475,000
11. 1988-05-11
    soldstatus $440,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,998 · $416/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,111 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,113/yr (+$93/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,947
• − Property taxes: −$4,998
• − Insurance: −$2,138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,600
• − Management: −$5,600
• − Depreciation: −$12,436
• Taxable income: $15,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,667
• After-tax cash flow: $17,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Richmond County · 404,174 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,497
• Household income: $83,947
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 482,784 people
• By 2030: 481,831 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 473,159 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 457,242 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 408,029 · -15.5%
• By 2100: 341,459 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 33% Two or more races 17% White 15% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.8) · D 35.1% · R 64.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -29.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+16.8 2012: D+0.8 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.86%
• Current HPI: 369.2771
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — SIBORMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $427,500 SIBORMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $468,000 SIBORMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2014-12-03 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2007-02-01 Listed $635,000 SIBORMLS
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-08 Listed $659,900 SIBORMLS
• 2003-08-26 Listed $475,000 SIBORMLS
• 1988-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,998 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.