2389 San Rafael St · Brownsville, TX 78521

$89,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1985 6,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity!! Fixer upper home 3 bedroom 1 bath, fenced all around.

Key facts

• 6,750 sq ft lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Coolidge subdivision; Directions: Follow Google Maps

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cromack El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 501 students, 100% FRL); Faulk Middle (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 976 students, 99% FRL); Porter Early College H S (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 1,814 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 83% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.59%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,884
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $51,990
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,051/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3744 Boca Chica Blvd Unit 100F Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	21d	1	0.55mi
50 Galonsky St Unit 3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	952	$1,100	$1.16	43d	1	0.60mi
508 Truman Dr Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$975	$1.02	43d	1	0.79mi
224 Morningside Rd Unit 3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	13d	1	1.13mi
765 Billy Mitchell Blvd Ste 11 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$825	$1.03	21d	1	1.28mi
2954 Impala Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	1.31mi
824 S Central Ave Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	43d	1	1.34mi
2573 Rockwell Dr Unit 1C Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$1,100	$1.13	43d	1	1.43mi
2573 Rockwell Dr Unit 2E Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,000	$1.14	21d	1	1.43mi
2815 E Price Rd Unit 104 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1123	$1,350	$1.20	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 78-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $89,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$2,051
• − Insurance: −$2,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $1,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $89,500 RGVMLS
• 1995-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,051 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.