20216 4th St · Dudley, PA 16634

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,967 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

$58/sqft · 24% below area Est $152k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy, well maintained, 3 bedroom 1.5 bath sits on a 1/2 acre lot. Everything in the home has been remodeled within the past 10 years. All new electric, plumbing, windows, and an added half bath on a quiet street. 10 minutes to Lake Raystown

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Quiet street
• Full basement

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• FULL BASEMENT
• COVERED PORCH
• QUIET STREET
• MINUTES FROM RAYSTOWN LAKE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Driveway; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Other outbuilding/structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Other heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Unfinished full basement; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,605 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Tussey Mountain SD (rural): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #412 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Huntingdon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Huntingdon County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.03%
• DSCR: 3.36
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,617
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -24.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $114,240
• Equity at exit: $62,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.34×
• Total profit: $268,430
• Equity at exit: $104,737

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16634

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $700/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $1,423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2612 Morningstar Lane, Dudley, PA	4.0	3.5	1950	$2,699	$1.38	43d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $125,000 Active 557-char remark
16. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $106,000
17. 2021-09-10
    soldstatus $106,000 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    This cozy, well maintained, 3 bedroom 1.5 bath sits on a 1/2 acre lot. Everything in the home has been remodeled within the past 10 years. All new electric, plumbing, windows, and an added half bath on a quiet street. 10 minutes to Lake Raystown

18. 2021-02-14
    listed $109,000 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    This cozy, well maintained, 3 bedroom 1.5 bath sits on a 1/2 acre lot. Everything in the home has been remodeled within the past 10 years. All new electric, plumbing, windows, and an added half bath on a quiet street. 10 minutes to Lake Raystown

19. 2011-10-07
    soldstatus $15,000
20. 2011-04-18
    soldstatus $6,481
21. 1995-03-10
    soldstatus $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 79.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$700
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,591
• − Management: −$2,591
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $16,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,875
• After-tax cash flow: $13,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tussey Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4223970
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6329
• State rank: #412 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dudley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1605
• US rank: #21782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dudley, PA
• Population (ZIP): 296

Population outlook (Huntingdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,212 people
• By 2030: 43,057 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 40,537 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 37,844 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 31,411 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 23,907 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huntingdon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+37.4 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Current HPI: 119.8593
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+284.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $115,000 HCBR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $125,000 HCBR
• 2021-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) $106,000 AHARMLS
• 2021-02-14 Listed $109,000 AHARMLS
• 2011-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $6,481 Public Records
• 1995-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $700 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.