15188 Butler Lake Dr #202 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$560,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,831 sqft · Condo public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2016 $471/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home at 15188 Butler Lake Dr, Unit 202, nestled in the sought-after gated community of Livingston Lakes — one of North Naples’ finest residential enclaves. This second-floor Carriage-style condominium spans approximately 1,831 sq ft and offers a comfortable 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom layout — ideal for families, guests, or a home office. Step inside and you’ll find an open floor plan spanning the main living area; the kitchen features granite countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, stainless-steel appliances, and plenty of cabinet and counter space, perfect for cooking or entertaining. The living and dining area flows naturally from the kitchen —

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Granite countertops
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE SCREENED BALCONY
• DEDICATED ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of the Coach Homes at Livingston Lakes sub-condo; Zero canal access (no canal)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Professional management; Quarterly master HOA fee; Annual recurring HOA fees $5,656 (quarterly payments); One-time fees $150; HOA maintenance covers irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, sewer, street maintenance, and trash removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, spa/hot tub, and exercise room; internet access available; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 assigned parking spaces; Paved driveway; Attached 1-car garage (garage secured)
• Security: Gated community; Garage secured
• Utilities: Assessment-paid water; Assessment-paid sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential carriage/coach style; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Built in 2016; Located in the gated Livingston Lakes community
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Casement windows; Impact-resistant windows; West rear exposure; Paved road access; Zero lot line; Preserve and wooded area views

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry; Cooktop (electric); Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom located upstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Heat pump; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire / high-speed internet available; Closet cabinets; Fire sprinkler system; Pantry; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Family room and great room; Screened lanai/porch; Guest room and guest bath; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Smoke detector

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $481k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $473k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $473k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); North Naples Middle School (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 903 students, 25% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,730/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($493k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $472,951 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-46,422
• Equity at exit: $170,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-31,708
• Equity at exit: $212,196

Cash invested: $156,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,672/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$471
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$993
• Net cashflow: $-446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,294

Max offer price $481,190

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-288	+0% $-446	+5% $-605	+10% $-763
Rent	-10% $-820	-5% $-633	+0% $-446	+5% $-259	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-304	base $-446	+0.5pp $-591	+1.0pp $-739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,000
• Closing costs: $16,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15181 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$7,500	$3.49	15d	1	0.05mi
15177 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$8,500	$3.95	15d	1	0.07mi
15145 Palmer Lake Cir #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$7,000	$4.46	25d	1	0.13mi
4965 Sandra Bay Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	15d	1	0.15mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$4,272	$3.83	15d	68	0.16mi
15144 Palmer Lake Cir #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1375	$6,500	$4.73	25d	1	0.16mi
4940 Cougar Ct S Unit 1545947P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,185	$1.60	15d	1	0.18mi
4945 Cougar Ct S #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,750	$2.00	15d	1	0.21mi
15126 Palmer Lake Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1254	$3,700	$2.95	25d	2	0.24mi
4910 Cougar Ct N Unit 1-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,050	$1.49	15d	1	0.27mi
4970 Deerfield Way Unit F-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,990	$1.43	15d	1	0.34mi
4950 Deerfield Way #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$2,000	$1.44	23d	1	0.34mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	25d	1	0.35mi
4910 Deerfield Way Unit A-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$5,500	$3.96	15d	1	0.41mi
5125 Cedar Springs Dr #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2177	$5,650	$2.60	25d	1	0.48mi
5105 Cedar Springs Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$7,000	$4.24	25d	1	0.49mi
5130 Cobble Creek Ct Unit B202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,800	$1.37	15d	1	0.51mi
5360 Andover Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$6,500	$3.37	25d	1	0.56mi
5145 Cobble Creek Ct #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1798	$2,600	$1.45	23d	1	0.57mi
5330 Andover Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,550	$1.47	25d	1	0.59mi
5325 Andover Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1654	$5,250	$3.17	25d	1	0.62mi
5657 Whisperwood Blvd #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	25d	1	0.64mi
5645 Whisperwood Blvd #504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	25d	1	0.66mi
5632 Whisperwood Blvd #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$8,000	$4.31	25d	1	0.69mi
2115 Malibu Lake Cir Naples, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$2,791	$2.35	15d	56	0.71mi
3425 Anton Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$3,800	$1.80	15d	1	0.72mi
3425 Anton Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$3,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.72mi
300 Diamond Cir #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,600	$1.48	25d	1	0.73mi
5455 Worthington Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,900	$2.73	25d	1	0.74mi
2001 Tarpon Bay Dr N #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,400	$3.33	25d	1	0.74mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,450	$1.39	25d	1	0.74mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	25d	1	0.74mi
194 Wickliffe Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,500	$1.95	25d	1	0.75mi
5935 Northridge Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1671	$2,995	$1.79	25d	1	0.77mi
10805 Queen Anne Ln #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1252	$4,800	$3.83	25d	1	0.79mi
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	15d	1	0.82mi
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	25d	1	0.82mi
600 Diamond Cir #607 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1680	$4,800	$2.86	25d	1	0.82mi
5693 Heron Ln #502 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,800	$4.56	25d	1	0.83mi
6215 Wilshire Pines Cir #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,500	$2.83	25d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $471 · $5,652/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $560,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $560,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $560,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $560,000 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $560,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $560,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $560,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $560,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-03-03
   price $560,000
10. 2025-12-10
    listed $580,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,672 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,672 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,369
• − Property taxes: −$4,672
• − Insurance: −$4,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,540
• − Management: −$4,540
• − HOA: −$5,652
• − Depreciation: −$16,291
• Taxable loss: −$14,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,584
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $560,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $580,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+22.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,672 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.