9 4th Ave NW · Garrison, ND 58540

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1930 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Lake sakakawea
• Boating and fishing
• Close to the school

Tags

• CLOSE TO THE SCHOOL
• LAKE SAKAKAWEA
• BOATING AND FISHING
• ACTIVITIES YEAR-ROUND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 140; Zoned R1

Interior

• Kitchen: Range, Oven, Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating
• Interior features: Range, Oven, Refrigerator; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($925 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#26 in ND, #4,476 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Garrison 51 (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #128 of 169 in ND (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in McLean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• McLean County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.32%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $25,817
• Equity at exit: $28,504

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $66,627
• Equity at exit: $43,374

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58540

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $833/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $554

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $311	+0% $293	+5% $275	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $256	+0% $293	+5% $330	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $310	base $293	+0.5pp $276	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $65,000 Active
3. 2018-11-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$833
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$888
• − Management: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$631
• After-tax cash flow: $2,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrison 51
• NCES district ID: 3807590
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,885
• Composite: 33.44/100
• National rank: #10541
• State rank: #128 of 169 in ND

Livability — Garrison

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #4476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garrison, ND
• Population (ZIP): 2,986

Population outlook (McLean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,405 people
• By 2030: 12,337 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 14,426 · +26.5%
• By 2050: 16,850 · +47.7%
• By 2075: 24,191 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 30,714 · +169.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 15% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Lithuanian 2% Norwegian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.2% · R 78.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+53.6 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.80%
• Current HPI: 195.9187
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $65,000 MMLS
• 2018-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $833 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.