3755 County Rd 174 · Garrison, TX 75946

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured · 25 Days on market

Built 1997 3.17 ac lot ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently remodeled and move-in ready on 3.17 acres in the Garrison ISD! This Gateway doublewide manufactured home features three bedrooms, two baths, 1792 sqft, vinyl siding, a metal roof, wood burning fireplace, nice country kitchen, ceiling fans, wainscot trim, sliding glass door, built-ins, dual vanity, and separate soaker tub & shower. NEW PICS COMING SOON!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Country kitchen
• Metal roof

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED
• MOVE-IN READY
• METAL ROOF
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#745 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Garrison ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #233 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,393 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $23,895
• Equity at exit: $79,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $79,807
• Equity at exit: $138,201

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75946

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,639/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,281

Max offer price $115,214

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-61	-5% $-100	+0% $-140	+5% $-179	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-183	+0% $-140	+5% $-96	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-104	base $-140	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move-in ready on 3.17 acres in the Garrison ISD! This Gateway doublewide manufactured home features three bedrooms, two baths, 1792 sqft, vinyl siding, a metal roof, wood burning fireplace, nice country kitchen, ceiling fans, wainscot trim, sliding glass door, built-ins, dual vanity, and separate soaker tub & shower. NEW PICS COMING SOON!

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $139,900 Active 369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (369 chars)

   Recently remodeled and move-in ready on 3.17 acres in the Garrison ISD! This Gateway doublewide manufactured home features three bedrooms, two baths, 1792 sqft, vinyl siding, a metal roof, wood burning fireplace, nice country kitchen, ceiling fans, wainscot trim, sliding glass door, built-ins, dual vanity, and separate soaker tub & shower. NEW PICS COMING SOON!

3. 2025-03-12
   price $199,900
4. 2024-12-18
   price $219,999
5. 2024-12-07
   price $239,900
6. 2024-11-15
   price $249,900
7. 2024-10-17
   listed $254,200 Active
8. 2016-04-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,639 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,639 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,639
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$4,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$988
• After-tax cash flow: $-689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820400
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,414
• Composite: 40.09/100
• National rank: #3808
• State rank: #233 of 826 in TX

Livability — Garrison

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #13767

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,536

Population outlook (Nacogdoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,553 people
• By 2030: 66,920 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 66,833 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 66,462 · -0.1%
• By 2075: 65,710 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 62,321 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nacogdoches

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.2% · R 69.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+31.3 2016: R+35.4 2012: R+36.2 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Current HPI: 169.019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-45.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $139,900 LAAR
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $199,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $219,999 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-12-07 Price Changed $239,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $249,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $254,200 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2016-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+31.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,639 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.