38950 N Hickory St · Lake Villa, IL 60046

$49,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1939 0.36 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors, builders, and contractors! This unique real estate package features a single-family home requiring substantial rehab or a complete teardown, paired with the adjacent 50' x 110' vacant lot. Perfect for a profitable flip, a custom rebuild, or a dual-lot development project. The property is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Due to structural conditions, utilities are completely disconnected/non functioning. With voluntary membership in the Subdivision homeowner's association, you have lake access to Crooked Lake. cash offers preferred, Do not enter the property without a confirmed showing appointment. All showings require a signed liability waiver prior to confirmation.

Key facts

• Lake access
• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1939

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple
• Financial info: Special service area: No
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Built approximately 81–90 years ago; Cedar construction; Built before 1978; Not rebuilt or recently rehabilitated; Crawl space / partial basement
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 155; Lot roughly between 0.25 and 0.49 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (10 x 6)
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (master bedroom on main level); Additional bedroom listings present
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Enclosed porch (20 x 6); Living room; Family room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.7% vs local median 3.2% in Lake Villa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in IL, #889 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-.
• Chsd 117 (suburban): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $50k implies a 890% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,757 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.12%
• DSCR: 5.99
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $74,540
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.37×
• Total profit: $171,455
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60046

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,763/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $1,295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,500 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,500 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,500 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,500 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,500 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,500 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,500 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $49,500 Active
16. 2014-09-03
    soldstatus $5,000
17. 1987-11-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$1,763
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $15,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,780
• After-tax cash flow: $11,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chsd 117
• NCES district ID: 1703870
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,993
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4836
• State rank: #135 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lake Villa

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 591,991 people
• City population: 34,708
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 34,613
• Household income: $126,042
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.45%
• Current HPI: 202.1374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+725.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $49,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 1987-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,763 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.