Luna Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$272,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,721 sqft · SingleFamily · 773 Days on market

↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

Key facts

• Brand new kitchen
• Open living space
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN LIVING SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $272,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,291.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 773 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,619 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 773 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,291
• List price: $272,990
• Delta: 1.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Jasmine Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+5%)	4mo	$275,000	$152	64
406 Shady Bank Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-0%)	6mo	$319,235	$186	58
506 Shady Bank Way	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-1%)	10mo	$318,990	$186	58
1402 Centerline Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-6%)	2mo	$309,990	$191	56
511 Magnolia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-11%)	2mo	$219,900	$144	55
505 Plum Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+10%)	3mo	$265,000	$140	55
401 Shady Bank Way	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-0%)	10mo	$333,990	$195	53
913 W Cook St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-11%)	7mo	$525,000	$344	52
104 Milton St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,604 (-7%)	7mo	$247,500	$154	50
506 American Elm Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+11%)	3mo	$279,490	$146	49
306 American Elm Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+11%)	7mo	$318,490	$166	46
404 American Elm Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+11%)	5mo	$273,990	$143	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $135,042
• Equity at exit: $241,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $406,476
• Equity at exit: $521,230

Cash invested: $75,121 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,407
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,024/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $243,054

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-82	+0% $-174	+5% $-267	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-258	+0% $-174	+5% $-90	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-106	base $-174	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,073
• Closing costs: $8,049
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.66mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.94mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.94mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.97mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	1.05mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	1.06mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	1.09mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	1.16mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	1.16mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	1.17mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	1.26mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	1.26mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	4d	1	1.27mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	7d	1	1.28mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	1.29mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	1.29mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	1.42mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	1.44mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	1.47mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $272,990 Active 773 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 770 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 769 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 768 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 767 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 765 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 764 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,990 Active 761 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,990 Active 760 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $272,990 Active 759 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $272,990 Active 756 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,990 Active 755 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,990 Active 754 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 753 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,990 Active 752 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    price $272,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

17. 2026-03-03
    price $270,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

18. 2026-02-07
    price $271,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

19. 2025-10-30
    price $270,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

20. 2025-09-24
    price $280,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

21. 2025-08-06
    price $295,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

22. 2025-08-03
    price $294,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

23. 2025-05-02
    price $295,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

24. 2025-04-18
    price $294,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

25. 2025-04-01
    price $295,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

26. 2024-10-15
    price $294,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

27. 2024-08-30
    price $290,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

28. 2024-08-08
    price $288,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

29. 2024-07-04
    price $308,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

30. 2024-06-16
    price $313,990 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

31. 2024-05-10
    listed $318,990 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    You enter the home through the foyer, where three bedrooms are located at the front of the home, along with a centrally positioned laundry room that also provides access to the two-car garage. Continuing down the hall, the home opens up to a spacious kitchen, family room, and dining area-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio is located just off the family room for outdoor enjoyment. Tucked off the kitchen and dining area is the private primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,028
• − Property taxes: −$4,024
• − Insurance: −$1,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − Depreciation: −$7,805
• Taxable loss: −$6,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $280,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-15 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-04 Price Changed $308,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-16 Price Changed $313,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-10 Listed $318,990 Zillow