1625 Muriel Dr · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$179,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1940 0.55 ac lot $89/sqft · 17% below area Est $215k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing 1625 Muriel, a fully renovated ranch in North St. Louis County offering strong cash flow and a rare, functional layout for tenants. Currently leased at $1,850/month, this property delivers immediate income and long-term rental appeal. The home features three spacious bedrooms, including two primary suites—an uncommon setup that adds flexibility and value. The updated kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, while the bathrooms have been fully refreshed with clean, modern finishes. A bonus entertaining space off the kitchen and a large backyard enhance livability and tenant retention. Whether you’re acquiring a single high-performing asset or expanding your portfolio, this property can be sold individually or as part of a package. Don’t miss the opportunity to secure a standout rental in North County.

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-385/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 8.1% in Spanish Lake — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grannemann Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); East Middle (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 391 statewide, top 91%, 172 students, 98% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 53% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $179k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,723 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,651
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -16.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11550 Rock Hampton Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,982 (-1%)	5mo	$224,999	$114	64
1720 Monticello Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-8%)	23mo	$209,500	$113	61
1516 Crossett Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,962 (-2%)	7mo	$230,000	$117	61
1732 Muriel Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,771 (-12%)	8mo	$194,900	$110	59
1627 Monticello Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,781 (-11%)	12mo	$155,000	$87	58
1912 Shardell Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-2%)	5mo	$238,000	$121	55
1536 Cove Ln	0.74mi	4/1.5	1,916 (-5%)	9mo	$214,900	$112	48
11327 Birmingham Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,214 (+10%)	24mo	$150,000	$68	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-35,452
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-50,515
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $173,333

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $19	+0% $-32	+5% $-83	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-92	+0% $-32	+5% $27	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $13	base $-32	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1310 Petite Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,495	$1.06	25d	1	0.67mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	0.93mi
1386 Fairmeadows Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1512	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	1.08mi
1510 Trampe Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1581	$1,600	$1.01	0d	1	1.09mi
1209 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1535	$1,295	$0.84	45d	1	1.17mi
1026 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,350	$0.77	0d	1	1.30mi
10331 Ewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1658	$1,540	$0.93	5d	1	1.31mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	25d	1	1.32mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	5d	1	1.32mi
10515 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1670	$1,400	$0.84	9d	1	1.48mi
10515 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1670	$1,400	$0.84	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $179,000 Active 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   Introducing 1625 Muriel, a fully renovated ranch in North St. Louis County offering strong cash flow and a rare, functional layout for tenants. Currently leased at $1,850/month, this property delivers immediate income and long-term rental appeal. The home features three spacious bedrooms, including two primary suites—an uncommon setup that adds flexibility and value. The updated kitchen showcases stainless steel appliances, while the bathrooms have been fully refreshed with clean, modern finishes. A bonus entertaining space off the kitchen and a large backyard enhance livability and tenant retention. Whether you’re acquiring a single high-performing asset or expanding your portfolio, this property can be sold individually or as part of a package. Don’t miss the opportunity to secure a standout rental in North County.

3. 2024-08-06
   historical $1,850
4. 2024-07-16
   listed $1,850
5. 2024-02-28
   historical
6. 2024-02-20
   status Pending
7. 2024-01-22
   price $149,000
8. 2024-01-22
   price $14,900
9. 2024-01-15
   listed $169,900 Active
10. 2001-07-10
    soldstatus $98,850
11. 1992-06-29
    soldstatus $93,750
12. 1982-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,514 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$828
• After-tax cash flow: $443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+90.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $179,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Rental Removed $1,850 MARIS
• 2024-07-16 Listed for Rent $1,850 MARIS
• 2024-02-28 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $149,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $14,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-15 Listed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $98,850 Public Records
• 1992-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $93,750 Public Records
• 1982-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,514 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.