Lancia's Trenton III Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46845

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,346 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Good condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Trenton III has 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms making this a great home for your family to grow into. Kitchen island looks into the spacious great room, complete with gas fireplace. Full basement available. * Base price is for slab and does not include land.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 443 days

🏗️ New construction. The $299,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $464,808.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 4.8% in Fort Wayne — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak View Elementary School (math 66% / reading 55%, grade B-, #122 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 453 students, 14% FRL); Maple Creek Middle School (math 41% / reading 60%, grade C, #43 of 330 statewide, top 14%, 957 students, 14% FRL); Carroll High School (math 59% / reading 86%, grade B+, #10 of 369 statewide, top 3%, 2,554 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $250,885 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.80%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,808
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -35.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1236 Westwind Pl	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,392 (+2%)	2mo	$420,000	$176	78
11718 Grand River Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,284 (-3%)	5mo	$371,828	$163	74
618 Merriweather Psge	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (-9%)	3mo	$475,497	$222	73
377 Carrara Cv	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,444 (+4%)	6mo	$449,900	$184	71
353 Dittons Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,125 (-9%)	1mo	$400,000	$188	70
280 Montalcino Run	0.43mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,340 (-0%)	6mo	$440,000	$188	70
12057 Falcatta Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,241 (-4%)	6mo	$429,320	$192	68
12920 Jade Cv	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,217 (-6%)	5mo	$410,000	$185	48
10817 E Rosewood Cir	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,494 (+6%)	4mo	$305,000	$122	47
1021 Wingate Dr	0.47mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,661 (+13%)	6mo	$270,000	$101	42
10833 Mill Lake Cv	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,041 (-13%)	5mo	$347,500	$170	41
244 Sepia Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,065 (-12%)	5mo	$415,900	$201	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-143,528
• Equity at exit: $69,304

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-169,347
• Equity at exit: $40,188

Cash invested: $130,146 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $301,900 ($131/sqft)
• Median days on market: 443 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +50.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46845

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,972/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-1,280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,129

Max offer price $279,562

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-959	-5% $-1,120	+0% $-1,280	+5% $-1,441	+10% $-1,601
Rent	-10% $-1,478	-5% $-1,379	+0% $-1,280	+5% $-1,181	+10% $-1,082
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,046	-0.5pp $-1,162	base $-1,280	+0.5pp $-1,401	+1.0pp $-1,523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,202
• Closing costs: $13,944
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
377 Forecast Cv Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,499	$1.56	15d	1	0.25mi
377 Forecast Cv Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,499	$1.56	10d	1	0.25mi
11727 Trails End Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	33d	1	0.48mi
11727 Trails End Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	18d	1	0.48mi
827 Dantes Voyage Dr Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,395	$1.33	10d	1	1.05mi
10512 Brandywine Dr Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	2310	$2,100	$0.91	9d	1	1.09mi
454 Caracol Ct Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	1795	$2,395	$1.33	2d	1	1.24mi
562 Highfields Cv Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	2413	$2,700	$1.12	162d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail $50/mo · $600/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $299,900 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $299,900 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $299,900 Active 434 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $299,900 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $299,900 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $299,900 Active 431 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,900 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $299,900 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $299,900 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $299,900 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $299,900 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $299,900 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $299,900 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $299,900 Active 423 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $299,900 Active 422 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $299,900 Active 421 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $299,900 Active 420 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $299,900 Active 419 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $299,900 Active 418 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $299,900 Active 417 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $299,900 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $299,900 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $299,900 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,900 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $299,900 Active 410 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 409 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 408 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 407 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 406 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 405 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 404 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $299,900 Active 403 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $299,900 Active 402 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $299,900 Active 401 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $299,900 Active 400 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $299,900 Active 399 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $299,900 Active 398 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $299,900 Active 397 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $299,900 Active 396 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $299,900 Active 395 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $299,900 Active 394 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $299,900 Active 392 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,036
• − Property taxes: −$6,972
• − Insurance: −$2,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,408
• − Management: −$2,408
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$13,522
• Taxable loss: −$24,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,800
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak View Elementary School B- IN #122/994 Nat'l #7,053/41,679 Middle Maple Creek Middle School C IN #43/330 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Carroll High School B+ IN #10/369 Nat'l #1,843/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 394,020 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,583
• Household income: $112,676
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.27%
• Current HPI: 212.3516
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $289,100 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $289,100 Zillow