665 Fallen Oak Dr · Bertram, TX 78605

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2002 0.35 ac lot $173/sqft · 25% below area Est $268k · 25% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: City lot (approximately quarter to half acre); Paved city street frontage

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer not connected at lot) / Septic tank listed; Electricity available and on property
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick veneer, frame and masonry construction; Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Patio; Exterior storage; Backyard privacy wood fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; One cooling unit
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub with shower; Vanity; Breakfast area; Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in Bertram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#170 in TX, #4,466 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burnet Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 731 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,239 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.79%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,146
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -25.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
665 Fallen Oak Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	0mo	$190,000	$164	100
560 Live Oak Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,109 (-4%)	7mo	$280,000	$252	81
679 W South St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,111 (-4%)	13mo	$260,000	$234	75
510 Live Oak Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+7%)	13mo	$272,000	$220	72
340 S Grange St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-2%)	13mo	$248,500	$219	69
415 Brooks Mill Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-5%)	8mo	$245,000	$223	67
730 Fallen Oak Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+9%)	17mo	$290,000	$230	64
518 W Vaughan St	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-14%)	17mo	$270,000	$270	50
345 S Lampasas St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (+12%)	13mo	$275,000	$212	44
1540 W State Highway 29 Hwy	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (+2%)	18mo	$285,000	$242	40
420 N Grange	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,098 (-5%)	24mo	$245,000	$223	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-49,538
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,941
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78605

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,313/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,888

Max offer price $152,239

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-214	+0% $-270	+5% $-327	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-331	+0% $-270	+5% $-209	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-170	-0.5pp $-219	base $-270	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
750 Fallen Oak Dr Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,595	$1.36	45d	1	0.16mi
90 Huge Oak St Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	996	$1,650	$1.66	45d	1	0.18mi
440 W State Highway 29 Bertram, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	3d	1	0.25mi
520 West St Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,595	$1.38	6d	1	0.48mi
104 Castleberry Ct Unit A Bertram, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,525	$1.09	16d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    listed $200,000 Active
11. 2003-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,313 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,313 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,313
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,621
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnet CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5811
• State rank: #465 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bertram

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #4466

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bertram, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,632

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 19% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.46%
• Current HPI: 296.8166
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $190,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-06-11 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-28 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $200,000 CTXMLS
• 2003-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,313 · +32.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.