10623 Dogwood Sky Dr · Kendleton, TX 77417

$254,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Emma floor plan is a versatile 1,635 sq ft single-story home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a welcoming front porch that opens into a bright foyer, leading to an open-concept kitchen equipped with a center island, pantry, and convenient access to the dining and family rooms-perfect for daily living and entertaining. This thoughtful layout includes four bedrooms, offering ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Bedroom 1 serves as a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and direct access to a full bath, while Bedrooms 2, 3, and 4 are situated near the second bath for added convenience. A centrally located utility room adds everyday practicality. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Open dining area
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• INVITING ENTRYWAY
• CENTRALLY LOCATED FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision lot features
• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Emberly Homeowner Association Inc; HOA amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, pool; HOA fee: $1,050 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (First floor living listed); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2026; Builder: D.R. Horton
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Patio; Private yard; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Disposal; Microwave; Energy Star qualified appliances; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 14; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10X10
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Solid surface counters; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,557.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,557
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -18.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10710 Sage Bend Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-2%)	1mo	$274,990	$172	84
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+9%)	0mo	$289,990	$163	79
1027 Rosewood Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-1%)	3mo	$313,900	$194	76
1062 Blue Stone Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+1%)	2mo	$317,990	$192	74
1031 Rosewood Trl	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+9%)	3mo	$299,900	$169	68
1023 Blue Stone Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-4%)	3mo	$309,990	$197	67
1031 Blue Stone Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-4%)	2mo	$307,990	$196	67
10803 Hickory Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+9%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	61
10606 Crimson Trce	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+12%)	2mo	$265,000	$145	54
1058 Blue Stone Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,833 (+12%)	3mo	$325,990	$178	53
1066 Blue Stone Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,833 (+12%)	3mo	$326,990	$178	53
719 Mockingbird Psge	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,863 (+14%)	2mo	$335,490	$180	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $62,997
• Equity at exit: $161,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $193,665
• Equity at exit: $266,901

Cash invested: $87,796 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,644
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,703/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,854

Max offer price $313,557

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $196	+0% $87	+5% $-21	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-30	+0% $87	+5% $205	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $167	base $87	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,389
• Closing costs: $9,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	0d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $254,990 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $254,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $289,990 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    The Emma floor plan is a versatile 1,635 sq ft single-story home designed for both comfort and functionality. It features a welcoming front porch that opens into a bright foyer, leading to an open-concept kitchen equipped with a center island, pantry, and convenient access to the dining and family rooms-perfect for daily living and entertaining. This thoughtful layout includes four bedrooms, offering ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Bedroom 1 serves as a private retreat with a generous walk-in closet and direct access to a full bath, while Bedrooms 2, 3, and 4 are situated near the second bath for added convenience. A centrally located utility room adds everyday practicality. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,564
• − Property taxes: −$4,703
• − Insurance: −$1,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$9,122
• Taxable loss: −$4,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$990
• After-tax cash flow: $2,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including painting and siding repairs. Fresh paint can greatly enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, increasing its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details
• Major interior walls — Blurred image, no visible details

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Aesthetic improvements can boost both resale and rental value
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Blurred image, no visible details	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Blurred image, no visible details	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — Aesthetic improvements can boost both resale and rental value ↑
• Both repair and paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $289,990 Zillow