16269 Sun View Ln · Grangerland, TX 77302

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2003 7,405 sqft lot $158/sqft · 18% below area Est $245k · 18% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for your personal touch! New vinyl plank flooring and carpet. New roof in 2024. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Living area has vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. Kitchen with island is open to living area. Large primary bathroom has double sinks and separate tub and shower. Fenced backyard and convenient location off of 242. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Generous dining room
• Large pantry

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• GENEROUS DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Summerset Estates POA with annual fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Entry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2003; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Laminate counters; Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Utility room (first floor, 6x8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,866
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -18.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16293 Sun View Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,264 (0%)	5mo	$189,000	$150	92
16371 Long Valley Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,264 (0%)	6mo	$190,000	$150	88
16956 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-5%)	6mo	$228,485	$189	85
16408 Windy Cove Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-5%)	6mo	$234,460	$195	78
16317 Sun View Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-9%)	5mo	$190,000	$165	75
16228 Sun View Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-9%)	5mo	$180,000	$157	75
16981 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+11%)	6mo	$264,690	$188	71
16686 Sterling Cliff St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+11%)	2mo	$242,090	$172	71
16125 Sepia Manor St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-5%)	3mo	$239,840	$199	68
16997 Juniper Blossom Bnd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+15%)	6mo	$254,390	$176	64
16181 Sepia Manor St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,204 (-5%)	7mo	$239,990	$199	62
16674 Sterling Cliff St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+15%)	6mo	$269,040	$186	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,353
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $14,949
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,057/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $344	+0% $288	+5% $231	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $202	+0% $288	+5% $374	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $339	base $288	+0.5pp $236	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	26d	1	0.19mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	0.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-05-05
   listed $200,000 Active 933-char remark
6. 2025-05-27
   soldstatus Sold 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Ready for your personal touch! New vinyl plank flooring and carpet. New roof in 2024. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Living area has vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. Kitchen with island is open to living area. Large primary bathroom has double sinks and separate tub and shower. Fenced backyard and convenient location off of 242. Welcome home!

7. 2025-05-27
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Ready for your personal touch! New vinyl plank flooring and carpet. New roof in 2024. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Living area has vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. Kitchen with island is open to living area. Large primary bathroom has double sinks and separate tub and shower. Fenced backyard and convenient location off of 242. Welcome home!

8. 2025-05-12
   status Pending 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Ready for your personal touch! New vinyl plank flooring and carpet. New roof in 2024. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Living area has vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. Kitchen with island is open to living area. Large primary bathroom has double sinks and separate tub and shower. Fenced backyard and convenient location off of 242. Welcome home!

9. 2025-05-03
   status Option Pending 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Ready for your personal touch! New vinyl plank flooring and carpet. New roof in 2024. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Living area has vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. Kitchen with island is open to living area. Large primary bathroom has double sinks and separate tub and shower. Fenced backyard and convenient location off of 242. Welcome home!

10. 2025-04-21
    price $209,900 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Ready for your personal touch! New vinyl plank flooring and carpet. New roof in 2024. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Living area has vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. Kitchen with island is open to living area. Large primary bathroom has double sinks and separate tub and shower. Fenced backyard and convenient location off of 242. Welcome home!

11. 2025-03-21
    listed $219,900 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Ready for your personal touch! New vinyl plank flooring and carpet. New roof in 2024. Spacious floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Living area has vaulted ceilings and lots of natural light. Kitchen with island is open to living area. Large primary bathroom has double sinks and separate tub and shower. Fenced backyard and convenient location off of 242. Welcome home!

12. 2013-08-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    NO MORE SHOWINGS

13. 2013-08-05
    soldstatus
14. 2013-07-22
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    NO MORE SHOWINGS

15. 2013-07-19
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    NO MORE SHOWINGS

16. 2013-07-12
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    NO MORE SHOWINGS

17. 2013-03-21
    listed $73,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (16 chars)

    NO MORE SHOWINGS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,057 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,057
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $3,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+174.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2013-08-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-07-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-03-21 Listed $73,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,057 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.