1508 Paper Birch St · Lake Placid, FL 33852

$143,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1978 0.52 ac lot Est $193k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This private rustic cabin simply oozes with charm. I can see this one as a fun vacation house or if you are tired of the same o same o properties this may be the one you've been searching for. 1508 Paper Birch has a tranquil setting, down a nicely maintained graded/dirt (county-maintained) road. There is plenty of privacy and space between neighbors with the extra space of the half acre. Inside has had many updates throughout the years with flooring, roof, paint, and room additions. Outside the shingle roof was installed in 2018, and there is a super cool workshop that could be many additional things, it almost looks like another little cabin. There are two nice parks in this neighborhood one with a playground and clubhouse and dock overlooking Lake Istokpoga and off Boat Ramp road there is a nice boat launch, large parking area, and walking path. The main house had central ac at one time but when it stopped working window units were installed. Living Sq footage has been increased from what the county website says.

Key facts

• Full utility room
• Built in bar
• Fenced half-acre lot

Tags

• FENCED HALF-ACRE LOT
• BUILT IN BAR
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• FULL UTILITY ROOM
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• CABANA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank / sewer not available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with aluminum siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear enclosed porch; Fenced yard; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.7% in Lake Placid — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#525 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lake Placid Elementary School (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 594 students, 80% FRL); Lake Placid Middle School (math 42% / reading 33%, grade F, #395 of 571 statewide, top 70%, 621 students, 75% FRL); Lake Placid High School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 868 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1488 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,248
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
439 Highlands Lake Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (+3%)	2mo	$185,000	$170	71
1412 Errol St	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,110 (+5%)	6mo	$170,000	$153	56
222 Highlands Lake Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	957 (-9%)	2mo	$200,000	$209	51
505 Bright Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,003 (-5%)	18mo	$190,000	$189	51
251 Pershing Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	9mo	$200,000	$200	50
425 Sandpiper St	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	5mo	$183,000	$183	48
457 Washington Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,085 (+3%)	22mo	$189,000	$174	46
1164 Macarthur St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+4%)	4mo	$195,000	$177	46
1154 Macarthur St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+4%)	9mo	$190,000	$172	41
401 Nichele Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (+15%)	19mo	$295,000	$244	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,026
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,178
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33852

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1488
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $143,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $143,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $143,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $143,000 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $143,000 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,000 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $143,000 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    status Active
16. 2026-04-23
    price $143,000
17. 2026-04-18
    historical
18. 2025-10-20
    status Active
19. 2025-10-19
    historical
20. 2025-10-17
    listed $150,000 Active
21. 2023-01-28
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed 1030-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

    This private rustic cabin simply oozes with charm. I can see this one as a fun vacation house or if you are tired of the same o same o properties this may be the one you've been searching for. 1508 Paper Birch has a tranquil setting, down a nicely maintained graded/dirt (county-maintained) road. There is plenty of privacy and space between neighbors with the extra space of the half acre. Inside has had many updates throughout the years with flooring, roof, paint, and room additions. Outside the shingle roof was installed in 2018, and there is a super cool workshop that could be many additional things, it almost looks like another little cabin. There are two nice parks in this neighborhood one with a playground and clubhouse and dock overlooking Lake Istokpoga and off Boat Ramp road there is a nice boat launch, large parking area, and walking path. The main house had central ac at one time but when it stopped working window units were installed. Living Sq footage has been increased from what the county website says.

22. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus $170,000
23. 2022-12-03
    historical Active Under Contract 1030-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

    This private rustic cabin simply oozes with charm. I can see this one as a fun vacation house or if you are tired of the same o same o properties this may be the one you've been searching for. 1508 Paper Birch has a tranquil setting, down a nicely maintained graded/dirt (county-maintained) road. There is plenty of privacy and space between neighbors with the extra space of the half acre. Inside has had many updates throughout the years with flooring, roof, paint, and room additions. Outside the shingle roof was installed in 2018, and there is a super cool workshop that could be many additional things, it almost looks like another little cabin. There are two nice parks in this neighborhood one with a playground and clubhouse and dock overlooking Lake Istokpoga and off Boat Ramp road there is a nice boat launch, large parking area, and walking path. The main house had central ac at one time but when it stopped working window units were installed. Living Sq footage has been increased from what the county website says.

24. 2022-11-15
    listed $170,000 Active 1030-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

    This private rustic cabin simply oozes with charm. I can see this one as a fun vacation house or if you are tired of the same o same o properties this may be the one you've been searching for. 1508 Paper Birch has a tranquil setting, down a nicely maintained graded/dirt (county-maintained) road. There is plenty of privacy and space between neighbors with the extra space of the half acre. Inside has had many updates throughout the years with flooring, roof, paint, and room additions. Outside the shingle roof was installed in 2018, and there is a super cool workshop that could be many additional things, it almost looks like another little cabin. There are two nice parks in this neighborhood one with a playground and clubhouse and dock overlooking Lake Istokpoga and off Boat Ramp road there is a nice boat launch, large parking area, and walking path. The main house had central ac at one time but when it stopped working window units were installed. Living Sq footage has been increased from what the county website says.

25. 2015-02-09
    soldstatus $52,500
26. 2015-01-30
    soldstatus $52,500 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Owner financing, lease/option available. This Seller is creativel This is a good opportunity to own a 2 Bedroom 1 Bath Highlands Park Estate home on 1/2 acre. Needs a little work but could be a great buy! Kitchen fully remodeled a few years ago. Screened porch is 6 x 10 and there is an enclosed porch which is approximately 6 x 10

27. 2014-08-18
    listed $49,900 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Owner financing, lease/option available. This Seller is creativel This is a good opportunity to own a 2 Bedroom 1 Bath Highlands Park Estate home on 1/2 acre. Needs a little work but could be a great buy! Kitchen fully remodeled a few years ago. Screened porch is 6 x 10 and there is an enclosed porch which is approximately 6 x 10

28. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus $25,500
29. 1983-05-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 105.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $1,359
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$326
• After-tax cash flow: $3,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Placid

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #9813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 22,600
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,600
• Household income: $54,284
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 439.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.31%
• Current HPI: 224.8693
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+495.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $143,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-18 Delisted — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-19 Delisted — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-10-17 Listed $150,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-01-28 Sold (MLS) $170,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-03 Contingent — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-11-15 Listed $170,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2015-01-30 Sold (MLS) $52,500 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2014-08-18 Listed $49,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records
• 1983-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.